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Analyst: This BTC rally is mainly driven by leveraged trading rather than real capital inflows
Deep Tide TechFlow message: On July 22, CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom said in a post that within two days, Bitcoin rose from around $64,000 to $66,000, but this rally was mainly driven by leveraged trading rather than real money inflows. On-chain data shows that the funding rate briefly turned negative on July 18-19, triggering a short squeeze that sparked the rebound. Afterwards, open interest increased from about $21.2 billion to $23.0 billion, reaching a new high, indicating that newly added leveraged positions continued to push the market.
At the same time, spot trading volume has remained in a “cooling” state since April. Off-exchange stablecoin funds are waiting rather than withdrawing. In the ETF market, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for two consecutive weeks. On July 20 alone, daily inflows were about $271 million (with IBIT contributing $116.5 million), showing that institutional capital is slowly returning, but still not enough to lift overall spot trading volume back to life. Analysts warned that the current rally structure is fragile; once momentum fades, rapid deleveraging could trigger a sharp pullback. They advised waiting for a genuine rebound in spot trading volume before chasing the rally.