#夏日创作营 Analysts say Bitcoin’s rally faces a key test at $68,000, as the cryptocurrency market is in a “summer dormancy” phase.

Bitcoin’s price has rebounded 15% from its July low, but some analysts warn that the next move depends on whether it can break above levels that many recent buyers may be looking to sell.
Bitcoin’s price first broke $66,600 for the first time in more than a month, continuing the rebound momentum from July.

Analysts believe $68,000 is a key resistance level, and that resistance could determine whether the rally can keep going.

Vetle Lunde of K33 Research said that capital flows to Bitcoin ETFs have stabilized, but muted trading activity indicates the market is still in a “summer dormancy” mode.
Bitcoin’s weak rebound from $66,207.78 in July is about to face its biggest test so far.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin rose to above $66,000, reaching the highest level in more than a month, roughly 15% higher than the low at the start of July. At present, Bitcoin is moving toward the $68,000 area. Analysts said this price could determine whether this leg of the rally strengthens further or stalls.

According to the latest released market report, the significance of this price level is substantial, as it is close to the average purchase price of Bitcoin investors over the past five months. Traders who have been losing may view the first time the price returns to breakeven as an opportunity to sell, creating an area of supply overhang that could slow the upward trend.

The $68,000 price range also overlaps with Bitcoin’s mid-June high, after earlier rebound attempts failed and the price fell to a new cycle low below $58,000.

The analyst wrote, “It is expected that the first retest of this resistance zone will trigger a strong reaction.”

“Fragile but constructive”
Even though resistance remains, analysts believe market conditions are starting to improve.

The spot market has improved after months of weakness, and outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned into modest inflows. However, the report also noted that demand has not fully recovered yet, and that ETF capital flows as well as purchases by corporate Bitcoin asset managers such as Strategy (STR) still remain far below levels seen earlier this year.

Despite the rebound in Bitcoin lifting sentiment after a tough second quarter, analysts warn that the recovery “has not fully resumed.”

Data shows that Bitcoin now accounts for nearly 67% of spot crypto trading volume, up from about 50% a year ago. This shift indicates that investors continue to favor Bitcoin over other smaller tokens, and also suggests that traders are still leaning toward defensive strategies rather than taking on broad risk.

K33 Research’s data also depicts a similar picture.

Research director Vetle Lunde said institutional participation has continued to decline, with open interest in CME Bitcoin futures falling to the lowest level since 2023. Offshore perpetual futures positioning has basically remained unchanged, suggesting that even though Bitcoin has risen recently, speculative traders are still unwilling to add leverage.

Spot trading activity remains sluggish. According to K33 data, Bitcoin’s 30-day trading volume is only 62% of the annual average, and late July is historically one of the weakest periods of the year. Average daily spot trading volume over the past week is about $2.3 billion, and even with prices rebounding, it remains near the year’s lows.

K33 described the backdrop as “hopeful yet typical summer sleep.”

Although participation remains low, the company said ETF capital flows have stabilized after the redemption peaks in May and June. This month, only about one-third of trading days saw net outflows, compared with about 90% in June, indicating that selling pressure is easing, but buyers have not yet returned strongly, and market activity remains subdued.

“This is the classic summer pattern in the crypto space, and it again shows
signs of repeating,” Lunde wrote. $BTC ‌