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#夏日创作营 A possible “volatility storm” for Bitcoin could be on the way, and the market may see another round of turbulence
Market analysts remind traders to closely watch Bitcoin’s potential “volatility storm” in the near term—an environment where volatility rapidly spikes. Such events are often accompanied by price declines. This warning is mainly based on the trend of Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV). BVIV is often viewed as a “fear index” for the crypto market (VIX), and its movements are influenced by options demand. Options, as derivatives investors use to hedge the risk of extreme market volatility, typically see higher implied volatility when demand is stronger, and vice versa.
Currently, BVIV is hovering in the 34%-38% range. Historical data shows this zone has repeatedly become a key spot before volatility explosions, after which Bitcoin’s price often experiences a pullback. While past patterns do not guarantee the future will repeat, the market generally believes that volatility has a mean-reversion characteristic.
Under normal circumstances, after a low-volatility period, volatility expansion is likely to follow, while a high-volatility period may gradually return to stability.
Market analysts warn traders to closely monitor Bitcoin’s potential “volatility storm” in the near term—periods marked by a rapid spike in volatility. Such events are often accompanied by price declines. The warning is mainly based on the trend of Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV). BVIV is commonly seen as the crypto market’s “fear index” (VIX), and its movements are influenced by options demand.
As derivatives that investors use to hedge the risk of extreme market volatility, higher options demand typically corresponds to higher implied volatility, and vice versa.
At present, BVIV is hovering in the 34%-38% range. Historical data shows that this zone has repeatedly become a key point before volatility erupts, after which Bitcoin prices often pull back. While past performance does not guarantee a repeat in the future, the market generally believes that volatility has a mean-reverting tendency.
In normal circumstances, after a low-volatility phase, volatility amplification is likely to follow, while a high-volatility phase may gradually return to stability.