AI’s toughest part may not be taking away retirees’ jobs, but preventing young people from even getting their first job.

China this year is expected to have about 12.7 million university graduates entering the workforce, setting a new high; ironically, the kinds of entry-level work that companies are most likely to hand to AI first are data sorting, customer service, copywriting, basic design, and junior-level analysis.
An economist at ANZ Bank (Australia and New Zealand Banking Group) estimates that over the next two months, China’s youth unemployment rate may again approach 20%. Citigroup’s estimate is even more direct: China has about 9.6%, nearly 70 million jobs, facing higher risk of being replaced by AI; if you look only at workers in their twenties and early thirties, the figure would rise to 13.6%.
But to be clear, this does not mean that next month 70 million people will be laid off en masse. It means these jobs’ tasks are the most likely to be broken down and restructured. In the past, companies were willing to spend a year training new hires; now, managers may ask right away: “Can’t AI do this part?”
Everyone has been talking about how AI can make one person do the work of ten; from a shareholder’s perspective, that sounds great. The problem is: if every company only wants “experienced workers who know how to use AI,” where do the first batch of experienced workers come from?
In the future, the scarcest thing may not be people who can use AI, but companies that are still willing to let new hires make mistakes and grow stronger slowly.
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