U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates Again: Trump Threatens to Strike Underground Nuclear Facilities, Iran Warns of Expanding the Scope of Retaliation

Tensions between the United States and Iran have sharply intensified in recent days, and a conflict that has been ongoing for nearly five months is pushing the Middle East to the brink of a full-scale war. U.S. President Trump has once again issued a tough military threat, saying he will soon launch a strike on Iran’s key nuclear facility deeply buried underground. Meanwhile, Iran has issued a stern warning, stating that any new attack on its nuclear facilities will be regarded as an “expansion of a regional war,” and will result in all U.S. interests and its allies becoming targets. At present, the price of Brent crude futures has risen to $91 per barrel, reflecting the market’s extreme concern about conflict spillover and potential disruption to energy supplies.

1. U.S. Side Developments: Military Pressure and De-escalation of Talks

Targeting the “Pickaxe Mountain” Underground Nuclear Facility
When meeting Lebanon’s president in the Oval Office, Trump stated clearly that intelligence indicates Iran may have transferred key components for manufacturing nuclear weapons to a nuclear facility located beneath Kolang Gazla—“Pickaxe Mountain.” He claimed that U.S. forces would soon strike that area and hinted that heavy bunker-busting munitions capable of penetrating deep shelters might be used (such as GBU-57). Earlier, in an interview, Trump also described the location as “a target suitable for a nice, heavy, straight-on strike.” These remarks show that the U.S. strike plan has shifted from mere verbal deterrence to a stage of concrete tactical preparation.

Dimming Prospects for Negotiations, Emphasizing “This Is Far From Over”
Although outside speculation suggests the two sides may restart contact, Trump’s comments on Tuesday at the White House dashed that hope. He said that while Iran “really wants to hold meetings,” the U.S. has “no interest” until the other side is ready to conduct “meaningful talks.” He emphasized that the conflict is “far from over,” and said that if Iran withdraws now, Iran would need 20 to 25 years to rebuild—implying the U.S. aims to completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability and regional influence through sustained pressure. This hardline posture is intended not only to gain military advantage, but also to take the initiative in domestic political bargaining.

War Costs and Domestic Pressure
U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth told Congress that the conflict, now lasting nearly five months, has cost the United States $37.5B, far exceeding the $29B estimated at the end of May. As U.S. casualties rise (in the past two weeks, nearly 100 people have been injured, mostly concussions) and domestic gasoline prices have again broken above $4 per gallon, with midterm elections in mid-November approaching, the Trump administration faces immense domestic political and economic pressure. Trump even accused Iran of trying to influence U.S. votes by launching attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, attempting to externalize domestic problems.

2. Iran’s Response: Hardline Retaliation and Strategic Leverage

Warning of “Expanding the Regional War”
Iran’s Hatam-ambya Central Headquarters issued a statement drawing a red line: if the United States launches any new attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran will regard it as an “expansion of a regional war.” The statement clearly noted that all U.S. interests, allies, and countries that support the United States will become targets of Iran’s armed forces’ strong strikes. The warning is not only aimed at U.S. bases, but directly at the U.S. alliance system in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Refusing to Be Forced Back to the Negotiation Table
In an interview posted on Iran’s Foreign Minister Aragazi’s Telegram channel, he said Iran will not give up diplomatic channels, but if it suffers military attacks, it will also not be forced back to the negotiation table. He emphasized that Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf have global impact, and that Iran has become a “global participant.” This suggests Tehran views its control of the strait as leverage in confronting the United States, while also treating it as the lifeline of national security. Since the April ceasefire agreement broke down, Tehran has stepped up attacks on U.S. Gulf allies in recent weeks. On Tuesday, fighting further spilled over, as Yemen-based Houthi rebels supported by Iran announced they will impose “a maritime blockade” on Saudi Arabian ports, marking the conflict’s evolution from bilateral confrontation into a regional mixed war.

3. Outlook: High-Risk Standoff

The current situation shows the characteristics of a dangerous “chicken game.” The Trump administration is trying to force Iran into making fundamental concessions on the nuclear issue and regional influence through maximum pressure, even at the cost of destroying its nuclear facilities. However, Iran’s response indicates that they would rather endure massive military strikes than compromise on core interests, and they have the ability to make the U.S. pay a heavy price by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and supporting proxy wars.

For global markets, the most direct impact comes from energy security. If “Pickaxe Mountain” is struck, or if Iran truly carries out a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil supply would face a sharp collapse, and it would no longer be alarmist to imagine oil prices breaking $100 or even higher. This would not only intensify global inflation, but could also trigger a new round of economic recession.

In addition, the spillover effects of this conflict have already emerged. The threat by Houthi forces to Saudi ports, and Iran’s warnings to “all U.S. allies,” mean the fighting could spread to the entire Middle East at any time. For civilians caught in it—whether U.S. service members, Iranian people, or people in neighboring countries—heavy costs will be paid in this great-power standoff.

In summary, the U.S.-Iran conflict has entered an extremely dangerous new stage. Both sides’ words and actions keep probing each other’s bottom lines, while the space for diplomatic mediation is being rapidly squeezed. The next few weeks will be a critical window for whether the conflict moves toward controllable localized friction or spirals into an uncontrollable full-scale war.