(ETHUSDT perpetual contracts) possible price trend over the next 4 hours (as of around 18:00 on July 22).

⚠️ Important notice: The following analysis is based on technical indicators and does not constitute investment advice. Contract trading is high-risk—please be sure to set a stop-loss.

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1. Core view: short-term consolidation slightly bullish, but facing key resistance

Overall, in the next 4 hours the probability of price fluctuating upward is slightly higher, but the upside is limited; $1,954 is the key line in the sand.

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2. Support and resistance levels (key range for the next 4 hours)

· First resistance above: $1,952 - $1,965 (high-volume/position-dense zone, strong resistance)
· Second resistance above: $2,020 (recent high)
· First support below: $1,904 - $1,918 (15-minute support)
· Second support below: $1,877 (MA50 line, key long/short boundary)

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3. Detailed breakdown of bullish and bearish factors

🟢 Bullish signals (short-term dominance)

· Moving averages bullish alignment: Price(1,920) > MA50(1,876) > MA120(1,813) > MA200(1,743), healthy medium-term trend.
· MACD strong: DIF(18.76) above DEA(17.21), bullish momentum persists; the gap between fast and slow lines has not clearly contracted.
· Limited pullback room: Below there is MA50 and the $1,904 support; as long as it’s not broken, the short-term trend remains upward.

🔴 Bearish risk (key resistance)

· KDJ about to form a death cross: K line(61.88) moving downward toward D line(72.22); if a death cross forms within the day, it will trigger a short-term pullback.
· RSI neutral but slightly weak: RSI(6) is only 55, far below RSI(12)’s 61, indicating short-term upward momentum is fading.
· Strong resistance zone is near: Above, $1,952-1,965 is a position-dense zone, making it difficult to break through in one go in the short term.

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4. Two most likely scenario simulations

· Scenario A (probability about 60%): Price first consolidates around $1,920, then attempts to push up to $1,952-1,965; after touching it, it will likely pull back and finally close around $1,940.
· Scenario B (probability about 40%): If BTC leads down or a sudden bad news catalyst hits, and price breaks below $1,904, it may quickly drop to $1,877 (MA50) to seek support.

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5. Trading reference ideas

· If you already hold a short: suggest taking profit in batches in the $1,918-1,904 area; if it breaks above $1,930, cut decisively with a stop-loss.
· If you plan to go long: wait for a pullback to $1,904-1,910 and enter with a light position if it does not break; target $1,950; stop-loss below $1,890.
· If you plan to short: patiently wait for a rebound to the $1,950-1,965 zone; only enter after clear “stalling/range ceiling” signals appear; stop-loss above $1,980.

Summary: For the next 4 hours, expect range consolidation between $1,918 and $1,952. The bias is slightly upward, but chasing prices has a poor risk-reward ratio; waiting for a pullback or trading at the range boundaries is safer.$ETH $BTC