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7.22 Midday Thoughts
The market is currently in the Fed’s quiet period from 7.18 to 7.30, during which all officials have fallen silent. The market can only rely on U.S. stock earnings reports to determine its own direction. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is rising to 4.64%. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices higher, and fresh concerns about inflation in the energy sector have returned. The market has pushed out expectations for Fed rate cuts. In a long-term high interest rate environment, the valuation of non–interest-bearing “bread” remains suppressed, and the conditions for a one-way, big rally are still not in place.
Bread rebound/short-cover around 67,000-67,500, target looking toward 65,600-65,100.
Second bread rebound/short-cover around 1,960-2,000, target looking toward 1,900-1,860.
$BTC $ETH
We are currently in the Fed blackout period from 7.18 to 7.30, during which all officials are silent. The market can only set its own direction based on U.S. stock earnings reports. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has risen to 4.64%. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices higher, reviving concerns about inflation on the energy front. The market has delayed expectations for a Fed rate cut. In a long-term high-interest-rate environment, the valuation of non–interest-bearing “big pie” assets remains suppressed, and conditions for a one-way surge are still not in place.
Big pie rebound around 67,000–67,500; target towards 65,600–65,100
Second pie rebound around 1,960–2,000; target towards 1,900–1,860
$BTC $ETH