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Why didn’t the first “ceasefire” window after the U.S.-Iran tensions reignite cool oil prices?
Yesterday, Iran first proposed a 10-day ceasefire.
In the evening, Trump wasn’t interested.
(Probably because Iran opened crude oil short positions, and Trump’s long positions haven’t been closed yet.)
Today, the U.S. Secretary of State said he’s open to talks.
But these messages didn’t cool oil prices—instead, prices kept rising.
This is likely a “spokesperson” issue; it’s only staying at the level of what’s said.
But since this momentum is there, more short-term ceasefire talk will likely show up in the near term, and the market will be watching what Trump says—(i.e., when to take profit on the longs).
Yesterday, Iran proposed a “temporary ceasefire,” opened 82 shorts, but didn’t get a further response—then woke up to find it had turned into a loss.
Recently, stocks, gold, and oil have all been rising: stocks and crypto longs have made money, while oil shorts are losing.
But as long as the “temporary ceasefire” window is reached, oil prices will cool down quickly.
$WTI.US $CL