7.22 Midday Thoughts

We are currently in the Federal Reserve’s blackout period from 7.18 to 7.30. All officials have gone silent, and the market can only set its direction based on U.S. stock earnings reports. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen to 4.64%. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil prices, bringing fresh worries about energy-driven inflation. The market has postponed expectations for the Fed to cut rates. In a high-interest-rate environment for the long term, valuations for the non-yield “big flatbread” remain suppressed. Conditions for a one-way rally still are not in place.

When the “big flatbread” rebounds near 67,000-67,500, short there, targeting 65,600-65,100.
When the “second flatbread” rebounds near 1,960-2,000, short there, targeting 1,900-1,860.
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