#夏日创作营 Black Strategy: 7.22 FX, gold, and crude oil analysis strategy

【US Dollar Index (DXY)】  DXY yesterday first held high-range consolidation, then during the European-US session the price action rebounded again and recovered. It regained and traded above the 20-day moving average line at around 101. The daily chart ultimately closed as a single bullish candle; the bullish candle has returned above the moving-average band and the trend line. Judging from the daily structure: after DXY had consecutive bullish closes, yesterday it was again able to close bullish and above the moving-average band. Such strength undeniably increases the market’s optimistic sentiment regarding next week’s Fed rate hikes. Technically, DXY has broken through multiple moving averages and the trend line, and in the short term this relatively bullish trend has a good chance of continuing. However, if it wants to push further, it may still need to rely on fundamentals.  In the day session, focus on DXY’s pullback test below, specifically its retest of the moving-average band around 101. If it can confirm that price can hold and keep running above it, then a further rise later on will just be a matter of time, and then simply “one order” from the news catalyst. On the upside today, watch the tug-of-war near the prior minor swing high around 101.3. Before next week’s Fed rate decision, if DXY stays in a tight range around 101–101.3, that would reflect the market’s optimistic expectations for the Fed’s rate decision.  
Non-FX currencies today need to be careful. Although DXY’s consecutive bullish closes are relatively strong, the actual upside momentum is still limited, and it is also heavily affected by news. Non-FX currencies are currently also undergoing a correction, but they are all nearing key support levels; therefore, for conservative traders, in the short term it’s still better to watch more and act less.

【Gold】 
Yesterday’s gold price action looked unusually different. From the open, it kept rising and rebounding, repeatedly breaking through the 4040 and 4060 resistance levels. The high even touched above 4080, followed by a pullback. In the late-session, although it pulled back to below 4045 as expected, then price rose and rebounded again, returning above 4080. The daily candle ultimately closed with a “fully-filled” strong bullish body in the form of a saturated bullish candle.  
Looking back at yesterday’s gold move: the ongoing rally and rebound that broke through the key expected pressure around the 20-day moving average line at 4060 in the middle of the day was the first phenomenon beyond expectation. A daily bullish close spanning and breaking through the moving-average band and trend-line pressure shows that the bullish candle strength looks solid and dependable—this is the second phenomenon beyond expectation. It is also the factor that caused after today’s market open, early Asian-session sentiment to continue and further push up. In addition, in the recent period gold and DXY have been moving in the same direction and both closing bullish repeatedly; yet gold is no longer following DXY’s rhythm. The price action suddenly appears independent—this is the biggest abnormality and also increases the difficulty of analyzing and forecasting the short-term trend. For this strange situation, market interpretations are diverse. But regardless of the reasons, as of now gold has a medium-bullish candle breaking through the moving-average band, and technically this is a very clear “turn-to-long” signal. In the short term it may extend; as for how far it can go, and where it may turn back, likely depends on next week’s Fed rate decision. That is the decisive factor for gold’s future medium-to-long-term trend.  
Combining the daily and hourly chart: the market is basically holding above the moving-average band right now, and the band has risen to around 4070–40. Today, as long as gold does not fall back below 4070, it will likely extend another 1–2 days upward in the short term. On the upside first watch the previously dense trading area around 4035–38. If the rebound cycle extends, then focus on the upper end of the range and the contest near the prior highs around 4190–4200. However, in terms of daily structure: gold has been closing bullish for multiple consecutive days, and it is also moving in the same direction as DXY—yet the rhythm suddenly looks out of sync, hiding the risk of abnormal moves that must be guarded against. It’s not ruled out that this is yet another “false breakout” similar to the move on July 3. On the hourly chart: early in today’s Asian session, price action again emotionally rallies and is already testing pressure above 4120, which has basically already used up most of today’s intraday range. For such emotionally driven price action, it is still necessary to guard against it; for now, do not consider chasing longs, and do not take an adventurous bet on short positions. Stand by on the daily chart: wait for the market to digest, and only after sentiment stabilizes consider participation.  
In terms of execution: intraday we mainly expect a relatively strong rebound and continuation, but this is an emotionally driven move, and short-term resistance is hard to judge. You can first watch 4035–38. If there’s strong pressure, look at the 4190–4200 area. On the downside today, first watch the 4100 tug-of-war, and then watch the 4085–80 area for a fill/retracement. The probability of falling back below the 20-day moving average line at 4070 is not high, but you still need to guard against the risk that news could suddenly cause short-term overly bullish sentiment to collapse.  
① For conservative traders today: choose to watch more and act less. Even if it means missing out, it’s better than getting swept into the muddy water of an emotionally driven行情.  
② For aggressive traders today: you can wait for a rebound and a pressure test near 4135–38, then take one very light short position to bet, with a strict stop-loss at 4145. Targets: on the downside, take profit/reduce exposure first below 4120, then shift to a breakeven stop-loss; if a retracement occurs near 4100–4080, then reduce exposure again.  
③ If during today’s session the price action shows a large pullback—e.g., falling back below the 20-day moving average line at 4070—there is a risk of the market changing again. Even if the pullback is not that big, if it falls back to the 4100–85 zone, whether it can rise again, and what factors would drive the rise—those are unknown. Therefore, for today we do not consider any short-term long trades.  

【Crude Oil】  
Yesterday, WTI first oscillated and pulled back to around 81, then as expected the market rebounded and rallied, breaking through the short-term resistance at 83. In the evening, the high even pushed toward around 85. The daily chart closed with a bullish candle, but the upward momentum for WTI has not been fully completed. Under the influence of the Iran-Iraq situation, in the short term WTI still has room to keep rebounding. Today, on the upside, focus on the contest around the 60-day moving average at 86; and this level is also the upper pressure at the hourly chart’s rising channel. Therefore, if there is an overnight move where price can rise to around 86, then consider the expectation of taking pressure and betting on a short.  
For today’s WTI trading: for aggressive traders, you can take one light short position when testing pressure around 86, with a stop-loss at 86.6. Targets: look for around 85 to reduce exposure. The remaining longs can be watched for a retracement toward around 84. If price retraces to around 84, whether it can then trigger a short-term long entry needs to be considered based on the actual situation.
The above is only for communication and reference, and does not constitute any investment advice!