ETH rallied from around 1870 all the way to 1965, with a short-term gain of over 5%—the bulls are definitely strong. But after spiking to 1965, it printed a series of long red candles and kept sliding lower; a “high-level stagnation” signal has shown up—bulls and bears are finally at the real deciding moment. No picking sides—wait for direction; whoever wins, we follow.

Keep a close watch on these two levels

Key above: 1950-1965, intraday high at 1965. Break through and hold = the bulls continue; target 2000-2030

Key below: 1900-1890, support at the short-term uptrend line. If it breaks = the bears take over; target 1860-1850

Bull/Bear logic

Reasons to go long:
① On the 1-hour chart, it probed a bottom around 1870, then repeatedly reclaimed the moving averages; higher lows kept forming, and the uptrend structure is complete
② Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net inflows for two straight weeks, ending eight weeks of outflows exceeding 8 billion—institutions are slowly coming back
③ The probability of a Fed rate hike in July has dropped sharply, and macro pressure is continuing to ease

Reasons to go short:
① After pushing up to 1965, the 1-hour chart printed consecutive red candles; RSI turned down from the overbought zone, and the bulls are clearly losing momentum
② The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran continues to suppress risk appetite, and geopolitical risk won’t go away
③ 1965 is a previously dense trapped-long area; a huge number of trapped positions are waiting to get back to breakeven, and selling pressure is heavy
④ “Big whales” frequently place sell orders above 1950 to cap the price—short-term profit-takers are strongly motivated to realize gains

What should I do?

Breakout long: When volume supports and the price holds above 1950-1965, go long; stop loss below 1930; target 2000-2030.
Breakdown short: After an effective breakdown below 1900-1890, go short; stop loss above 1920; target 1860-1850.
Middle zone: Stay put between 1890-1950 and wait for direction confirmation before taking action.

The bulls-and-bears showdown—people who take the wrong side end up paying the bill. The real hunters always wait until the prey tips into one direction, then they pull the trigger. $ETH ‌ ‌