Yang Guang bit | July 22 $BTC Precision Strategy—Master the Trend End to End

Today's game plan
Short entry timing: pullback to the 66,700–66,900 area
Short add-on zone: pullback to the 67,100–67,300 area
Stop-loss: above 67,500
Take profit in stages
First take-profit target: 66,000–66,200
Second take-profit target: 65,500–65,700
Light long order reference: on a retracement to 65,800–66,000, enter with a light position; stop-loss at 65,500; target 66,600–66,800; quick in, quick out

News flow—Fund flows breakdown
1. International finance & geopolitical updates
International finance side: The Fed’s July rate decision is in the final countdown. The market’s pricing probability for a 25 bps cut remains above 95%, and there’s essentially no suspense about the outcome. The market’s main point of contention has shifted to the post-meeting dot plot and Powell’s remarks. Expectations for the number of further cuts this year are clearly diverging. Some capital has taken profits early at high levels, causing rebound momentum to keep slowing. Before the rate cut is implemented, the market will most likely remain range-bound at elevated levels.
Geopolitical side: The military standoff between the US and Iran has eased at the margin. Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually improving. International oil prices have pulled back from their highs, inflation rebound expectations have cooled at the margin, and risk-off sentiment’s support for BTC has weakened. The rebound driven by earlier risk-off concerns has officially entered a consolidation/rest phase.

2. On-chain & capital data
Institutional capital side: BTC spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, but the size of daily inflows has noticeably narrowed versus the past few days. Institutions’ willingness to chase higher prices is declining; more funds shift to waiting and watching for policy signals after the rate cut is implemented. The handoff of incremental capital is insufficient, directly limiting further upside room.
On-chain whale moves: After the price pushed up to above 66,900, top whale addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC showed a small trimming action. The pressure from profit-taking has increased in the short term, overhead sell pressure has gradually become evident, and chips have shifted from lower levels to higher levels. The market’s need for consolidation and digestion has become significantly stronger.
Futures capital side: In the derivatives market, long positions are at a phase high. The long-to-short ratio has risen to the recent peak, increasing long crowding. There is a risk of a phase correction and washout. Capital momentum has shifted from one-way longs to divergence between longs and shorts, and the probability of short-term range-bound trading has increased sharply. $BTC ‌#BTC突破66000美元