#夏日创作营 Spot gold rises and breaks through the $4,100 level

After a day of gains, spot gold continued to push higher in the early trading on the 22nd, breaking above $4,100 per ounce during the session and rising 0.6%.
On the news front, the U.S. military said late on the 21st local time that it has started a new round of airstrikes on Iran, marking the 11th consecutive night of attacks by the U.S. military on Iran.
In a statement, the U.S. Central Command said: “This airstrike is intended to further weaken Iran’s ability to threaten merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”
Also, according to reports by foreign media, mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan have proposed a 10-day ceasefire plan to the U.S. and Iran.
On the 21st, U.S. President Trump met with visiting Lebanese President Aoun at the White House and told the media that the U.S. “may soon” strike Iran’s “Gondash” underground nuclear facilities.
Based on recent CME “FedWatch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, while the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 15.5%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged through September is 36%, the probability of cumulative hikes of 25 basis points is 55.1%, and the probability of cumulative hikes of 50 basis points is 8.9%.
Marex analyst said that after gold broke through a short-term downtrend line, it also received technical buy support, and in the short term it may continue to trade in a range-bound manner; however, investors are still watching developments in geopolitical conditions and next week’s Fed policy meeting. Speeches by Chair Waller and the interest rate decision will be key.
Shenyin Wanguo Futures’ analysis on the 21st said that from a medium- to long-term perspective, the bullion price center of gravity has a sustained upward foundation: the global geopolitical risk center of gravity is rising, the restructuring of the political and economic order is still ongoing, while U.S. fiscal pressure is intensifying, which will continue to drive the de-dollarization process. The trend of global central banks increasing gold reserves continues, and the People’s Bank of China has continued to add gold for 20 consecutive months. Silver, platinum, and palladium have both financial and industrial attributes, and overall track the bullion sector; upside flexibility depends on coordination with industrial demand.