7.22 Morning BTC/ETH 4-hour Market Analysis + Complete Trading Layout

BTC and ETH Bollinger Channels overall trend upward, and the long-side big structure remains intact; after price made a new phase high, it entered high-level box-range consolidation—unable to push higher—while long/short competition intensified. The short-term sideways adjustment cycle continues; upside momentum slows down, so chasing longs is not suitable.
Phase highs: BTC 66924.1, ETH 1953.64; recent pullback lows: BTC 63736.1, ETH 1841.84.

Long/Short Practical Setup Plan

Core idea: The medium- and long-term long structure stays unchanged; after new highs, range-bound consolidation absorbs profit-taking. Trades mainly focus on buying the dip at pullback support; near the Bollinger upper band pressure zone, keep a light short position for short-term pullback testing.

BTC Trading Plan

✅ Long positions (priority)

1. Conservative long: Pull back to 65300-65350, enter in batches near the Bollinger midline
Stop loss: 64950; targets: 66100→66900; if price breaks above 66924, keep looking for new highs.

2. Aggressive long: Pull back to 63720-63780, set up near the Bollinger lower band
Stop loss: 63350; targets: 65317→66900

⚠️ Short positions (only light-position testing; absolutely no heavy leverage)
Entry zone: 66850-66900, short only if price touches the Bollinger upper band
Stop loss: 66980 (if a new high breaks, the short thesis fails)
Take profit in layers: 65950→65317 (fully exit when the midline is reached)

ETH Trading Plan

✅ Long positions (priority)

1. Conservative long: Pull back to 1894-1896, buy the dip near the Bollinger midline
Stop loss: 1876; targets: 1928→1952; if it breaks, look toward 1953.64

2. Aggressive long: Pull back to 1840-1845, set up near the Bollinger lower band
Stop loss: 1818; targets: 1896→1952

⚠️ Short positions (only light-position testing; absolutely no heavy leverage)
Entry zone: 1948-1952, short only if it touches the Bollinger upper band
Stop loss: 1959
Take profit in layers: 1912→1896 (fully exit when the midline is reached)

Key Risk-Control Rules

1. The current market is consolidating in a high range; long momentum is weakening. Keep short positions within 5% of total capital. Long positions only wait for pullback to support—no chasing.

2. If two consecutive 4-hour K-lines’ real bodies hold steadily above the Bollinger upper band, close all short positions at a loss and follow the trend with long positions.

3. If a 4-hour K-line real body breaks below the Bollinger midline, cut all long positions and exit; wait for support at the lower band, then re-plan the entry opportunity.