I. Major regulatory catalyst: top-tier positive news (this round’s early-morning surge directly triggered)

The White House and the Senate Republican Party have officially reached cross-party consensus on the ethical-conflict-of-interest provisions in the “CLARITY Crypto Market Structure Act,” completely clearing the biggest obstacle to rolling out the bill. Earlier negotiation deadlock focused on restricting federal public officials from profiting from holding crypto assets during their tenures. Now the differences have been resolved; the full revised bill text is about to be made public.

1. The House of Representatives already passed it with a high vote of 294:134. At present, only the Senate’s 60-vote threshold remains. It will likely be a big boost for passage before the August summer recess, since securing just 7 Democratic lawmakers would be enough to advance it for a vote;

2. After the bill takes effect, it will clearly delineate SEC and CFTC regulatory responsibilities. Bitcoin will be directly classified as a commodity regulated by the CFTC, ending years of regulatory tug-of-war chaos. The period for a legal entry window will open for compliance institutions with $1 billion+ in capital;

3. With the positive news driving the crypto sector, the entire market surged. Coinbase shares jumped 11% intraday. Crypto-related stocks Strategy, Galaxy, and MARA also rose sharply, while BTC surged in the early morning and briefly hit a stage high of $66,696.

II. Institutional capital flows: a turning point toward sustained ETF inflows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, marking the longest buying period since late April. Over the five days, they absorbed $727 million in capital, completely putting an end to the prior downtrend of fear-driven outflows that had accumulated more than $8 billion over the previous 8 weeks.

• BlackRock’s IBIT became the main vehicle for capital absorption, with a daily net inflow of $116 million, showing a marginal rebound in institutions’ willingness to pick up dips. On-chain, large holders saw activity changes: 1,160 BTC (about $76 million) were transferred in large size to Coinbase’s institutional-dedicated account, signaling long-term capital deployment;

• Shortcoming: compared with the earlier massive outflow scale, the current inflow volume is still relatively small. It mainly reflects the end of panic selling pressure, not the appearance of outside incremental “fresh water” in bulk. This rally-driven high is more driven by policy-and-sentiment than a one-way capital surge. After the spike, concentrated profit-taking has led to a price pullback.

III. Macroeconomic liquidity: the Fed’s quiet period game intensifies

We are currently in the quiet period before the Fed’s policy meeting scheduled for 7.18–7.30. All policy officials are fully silent, and the market has fully detached from verbal intervention. Asset pricing is now driven purely by autonomous negotiation between U.S. stock earnings reports and economic data.

1. The June dot plot locks in that for all of 2026, only one 25-basis-point rate-cut window is reserved. Keeping high interest rates long-term remains the set policy stance. The ongoing Middle East conflict keeps pushing oil prices up: Brent crude rises above $91. Input-driven inflation on the energy side re-appears, directly compressing the Fed’s room for easing operations in the second half of the year;

2. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield holds above 4.6%. The U.S. dollar index remains resilient at a high level. Bitcoin, as a non-interest-bearing, dollar-priced risk asset, sees a continuous rise in opportunity costs for holding. Long-term valuation suppression has not been lifted. Once positive sentiment fades, the price is highly likely to revert to a technical-pressure pullback trend.

IV. Geopolitical market disruption: oil prices keep tugging inflation expectations

The Iran–U.S. conflict continues to escalate. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain high, and the geopolitical risk premium for crude oil keeps rising. During the day, when brief reports of a ceasefire negotiation spread, oil prices dropped and crypto assets simultaneously surged. But the news was quickly denied. Oil prices then rebounded fast, regaining lost ground. BTC surged and then pulled back immediately, validating that the pressure remains effective.

Geopolitical conflict creates a fixed transmission chain: tightening situation → oil price spikes → inflation expectations rebound → U.S. Treasury yields rise → risk assets face pressure. As long as the Middle East does not see substantive easing, BTC’s one-way upward move will continue to be constrained at the macro level.

Overall news summary

In the short term, policy positives provide sentiment premium support for the market. But with two dual constraints—lack of incremental capital inflow in volume and macro high-rate suppression—positive news only brings impulse-style rallies and cannot start a sustained, one-way bull market. For tonight’s trading, remember not to blindly chase longs. Once sentiment fades, technical pressure will again dominate the market. Prioritize setting up short positions to test the market in the upper resistance zone, relying on technical pullback.

$BTC $ETH #事件合约上线