Overall, the market is more likely in the early stage of a strong rebound, but it is still not possible to say that a full bull market has been fully launched. Below are some positive signals, as well as risks that need to be kept in mind.

📈 Bullish positive signals

1. Major regulatory breakthrough
The most important catalyst recently is the progress of the U.S. “Clarity Act.” The U.S. Treasury Secretary said the bill is at the “1-yard line.” The market is betting that it will be passed soon, which could provide a clear regulatory framework for digital assets. Triggered by this, Bitcoin rose by more than 2% in a single day, and this month’s cumulative gain is close to 14%.

2. Institutional capital continues to flow back
After spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced fund outflows for as long as eight weeks, they have recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $727 million. Institutions such as BlackRock continue to lead, indicating that traditional capital has not exited the market and is instead rebuilding positions at lower levels.

3. Improvement in macro conditions and market sentiment
U.S. CPI and PPI data came in below expectations. Cooling inflation has strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged. Previously, when chip stocks fell due to AI concerns, some capital rotated from technology stocks into the crypto market, creating a “seesaw effect.” At present, Bitcoin has rebounded from its early-July low of about $58,562 and is back above $66,000. Ethereum has also risen to above $1,900.

4. Technical and cycle-theory support
Some analysts point out that Bitcoin’s price has formed “higher highs.” If it can hold steady above key resistance levels, it would constitute a signal of a trend reversal. From a cycle perspective, within 12–18 months after the April 2024 halving, a bull market is usually expected to arrive. Some views suggest that the true window may be between 2025 and 2026. Even Standard Chartered Bank has predicted that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2026.

⚠️ Risks to watch

· Whether it’s a rebound or a reversal still needs confirmation: What we have now looks more like a “repair driven by capital returning.” Whether it can evolve into a bull market depends on whether Bitcoin can stabilize and hold above $65,000 at the weekly level, and reclaim the $69,000–$70,000 pressure zone.
· Trading volume and market structure remain questionable: Trading volume in the spot market is still sluggish, and part of the rebound is driven by short covering and leverage. Meanwhile, after Bitcoin fell sharply from above $120,000 earlier on, it is still in a long-term adjustment structure.
· Macroeconomic uncertainty still persists: The Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 meeting and earnings reports from large technology companies are key near-term variables. In addition, geopolitical risks such as conflicts in the Middle East may disrupt the market at any time.

The market has sent quite a few positive signals, but there is still some distance before a bull market can be confirmed. Next, whether ETF inflows can continue, whether Bitcoin can hold key resistance levels, and what policy signals the Federal Reserve sends will be the key to judging whether the rebound can upgrade into a bull market.

The analysis above is based on publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. Make rational decisions and stay mindful of risks.
$BTC ‌