## Morning Gold News 🪨 7/22 Wednesday

**XAU $4,081.73（+0.73%）**｜COMEX settles at $4,071.10（+1.52%, biggest single-day gain since 7/14）
24h range: $4,003 - **$4,102** (After the CPI release, it jumped from $4,020 straight to the $4,102 high)
ATH $5,405 (January), current pullback -24.5%

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**#事件合约上线 Major events overnight**
- 🔴 **Day 10 of the Iran-U.S. tensions, intensity escalates again**:
- IRGC attacks **the headquarters of Bahrain’s U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet** (explosion occurs) + the radar at Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem Air Base + the radar on Bahrain’s Bubiyan Island
- The IRGC also attacked **Amazon’s infrastructure in Bahrain**
- Trump says "pretty soon" there will be strikes on Iran’s **nuclear facilities** (Isfahan underground facilities)
- Iran’s military warns: attacking nuclear facilities = expansion of full-scale war, targeting U.S. and allied interests across the region
- Nearly 100 U.S. service members injured in total (since 7/7), and 3 U.S. service members killed
- 🔴 **Houthi blockade continues**: 6 ships have already been forced to reroute in the Red Sea, and even the Saudi’s only alternative pipeline bypassing the strait (Red Sea outlet) is threatened
- 🔴️ **The UK approves U.S. troops using UK bases for defensive strikes against Iran**—NATO allies are further drawn in
- 🛢️ **WTI $84.40（+2.58%）**, edging toward the highs since the conflict began
- 📊 **U.S. CPI data boosts gold prices**: inflation cools (June YoY 3.5%, below expectations), and gold surged by $80 immediately after the data release
- 💵 DXY 101.21（+0.24%）, the dollar strengthens in tandem (safe-haven + rate-hike expectations)
- With Pakistan mediating, Iran’s Minister of Interior Momeni visits Pakistan and meets the Chief of the Army Staff
- **U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve falls to 311.4 million barrels—lowest since 1983**, and 104 million barrels have been released since the conflict began
- Goldman warns: if the straits remain disrupted, Brent in Q4 could reach **$120**

**Domestic gold prices**: AU9999 ~887 yuan/gram, brand gold jewelry 1220-1222 yuan/gram, scrap ~867 yuan/gram, bank gold bars 893-894 yuan/gram

**Silver** $58.79（-0.17%）, Platinum $1,629.30（+3.98%）, Palladium $1,281.75（+5.06%）
**BTC** $66,247（+1.62%）, **ETH** $1,916.82（+0.88%）

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**Qualitative view: Dual drivers—nuclear-facilities threat + CPI tailwind—gold breaks above $4,100 to test, but the rise in the dollar shows the standoff isn’t over**

Yesterday’s move was crucial—opened at the low of $4,003, then traded sideways around $4,020 during the day. After the CPI data release at 20:33, it surged directly to $4,102. This isn’t just a pure safe-haven-driven move; it follows the logic of **cooler inflation → improved rate-cut expectations → gold longs adding positions**. But the problem is:

1. **Trump’s threat to nuclear facilities is a new escalation variable**: If nuclear facilities are really targeted, Iran’s "expansion of full-scale war" isn’t just empty talk—power and water facilities in Kuwait/Bahrain have already been hit, and Iran’s retaliation would only intensify. That would keep oil prices surging, which would push up inflation expectations—creating the contradiction for gold: **"safe-haven up" but "rate-hike expectations up."**
2. **Dollar and gold rise together**: DXY 101.21 has risen for four consecutive days, suggesting funds are buying both gold (safe-haven) and the dollar (safe-haven + rate-hike) at the same time—traditional negative correlation is temporarily failing.
3. **Goldman’s $120 oil-price warning**: If SPR keeps releasing (already at a 43-year low), the U.S.’ own energy security is under pressure as well.
4. **COMEX rebounds from the $3,985 low**: up $86 (+2.2%), and near-term momentum is upward.

#Key levels
**Support**: $4,050 → $4,010 → $3,986 (7/16 low)
**Resistance**: $4,100 → $4,115 → $4,150

**Strategy**: If gold holds above $4,070 and breaks above the top of the recent consolidation range, the near-term bias is mildly bullish. But watch two variables: ① whether nuclear facilities are truly targeted (if they are, oil could break above $90, and gold may face pressure); ② the countdown to **7/28-29 FOMC** this week—market pricing keeps July unchanged at 85%, but September rate hikes are still at 52.6%. **If there’s a breakthrough in ceasefire talks (with Pakistan mediating), the safe-haven premium could quickly unwind $50-80.**

**Key calendar this week**:
- Thursday: initial jobless claims
- Friday: July PMI flash estimate
- Next Monday/Tuesday: FOMC meeting on interest-rate decisions