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The US Federal Reserve is entering a new stage of monetary policy amid mixed economic signals. According to the latest market estimates, most economists expect that at the July 29, 2026 meeting the Fed will keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. This forecast reflects the regulator’s cautious stance, as it continues to assess inflation, the labor market, and the overall condition of the US economy.

Official Fed data show that the central bank remains focused on achieving two main goals—maximum employment and price stability. After a period of aggressive rate hikes in 2022–2023, the Fed is keeping policy at a restrictive level, expecting greater confidence in a sustained return of inflation to the 2% target. Recent economic reports indicate a gradual easing of inflationary pressure, but the regulator is not in a hurry to move toward easing.

Key factors influencing the Fed’s decision:

1. Inflation — the Fed continues to monitor consumer price dynamics and key core indicators.
2. Labor market — a slowdown in job creation could affect future decisions.
3. Interest rates — keeping the 3.50%–3.75% range signals a cautious approach.
4. Economic growth — the regulator is assessing the risks of a slowdown in the US economy.
5. US dollar — Fed policy remains a key factor for currency markets.
6. Cryptocurrencies and risk assets — expectations of rate moves affect liquidity and investor sentiment.

If the Fed indeed keeps rates unchanged throughout 2026, it would mean an extended period of tight monetary policy. For financial markets, this could signal that the cost of capital remains high, while investors will continue to closely watch inflation, employment, and future statements from Federal Reserve officials.

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