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The odds for higher massively outweigh lower.
The 200w SMA has only ever been lost once in Bitcoins history, and that was in 2022.
What makes it so notable is that the chart literally sliced straight through it without any resistance.
Before that time, a weekly candle had never truly closed below it.
Fast forward to now, and Bitcoin has only closed one candle below it out of the last 7 weekly candles.
And the week after it closed below, it closed straight back above.
In short, any time Bitcoin has respected the 200w SMA like this, for this long...
It has never gone on to fully drop below.
This is only one of very many key metrics and data points that show us $60k is our macro low.