$XAUUSD

Gold spot price: 4068
Bias: range-bound, slightly bullish
Short-term support: 4045
Strong support: 4015
First resistance: 4100
Second resistance: 4150
Today’s core: Gold has recently stayed near and above $4,000, trading in a range; the market continues to price it around the U.S. dollar, rate expectations, and geopolitical factors.
Today in the Asia session, I’m watching gold, and I didn’t look at the 4068 price level right away.
I first looked at the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
Because gold is no longer a simple safe-haven asset.
In the past, many people understood gold as:
When war rises, gold rises.
When a crisis rises, gold rises.
When the dollar falls, gold rises.
But now, there are three funding-logics behind gold.
First, expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Second, global central banks continue to allocate and buy gold.
Third, the market is repricing the credibility of the U.S. dollar.
So gold holding above $4,000 is not driven purely by sentiment.
Recently, the market’s re-trading of inflation and the interest-rate path has also provided support for gold.
But.
At 4068, I won’t blindly chase longs.
The reason is simple.
Gold’s biggest problem right now isn’t that the logic for rising is missing; it’s that the short-term position doesn’t feel comfortable.
From the chart.
$4,000 has already shifted from a psychological level into a long defensive area.
As long as gold stays above $4,000, the market’s confidence in the uptrend won’t be clearly broken.
However, the 4070–4100 zone is where short-term funds start taking profits.
Many people who bought at lower levels already have gains here.
So there will definitely be a long/short rotation exchange in this area.
The most likely mistake the market makes today.
Is seeing gold break above $4,000.
Then thinking:
"Will gold directly go to 5000?"
My view isn’t that aggressive.
Trend: bullish.
Trading can’t chase emotions.
Because the closer you get to historical high levels, the more you need to wait for market confirmation.
A truly strong market isn’t one where nobody sells during the breakout.
It’s one where, after the breakout, sell orders show up and the market can still continue.
Tonight’s Europe and U.S. session, I’m watching two levels.
If gold can hold steady:
$4100
and the dollar doesn’t show clear strength.
Then short-term funds will continue pushing gold to test:
around $4150.
But if gold pushes at $4100 fails and falls back again:
below $4045.
Then I think the market will enter a short-term adjustment, and pull back to test:
support around $4015.
My trading plan today.
At 4068, I won’t go straight after a trade.
Because this is too close to resistance.
If you have long positions as a base:
keep holding.
If you have no position:
I’m more inclined toward two opportunities.
First:
after breaking above $4100, follow the momentum.
Second:
pull back to the 4045–4015 area and see whether there is follow-through/support.
For a product like gold, its biggest advantage is that the trend moves slowly.
Its biggest risk is also chasing rallies and killing positions.
#夏日创作营
Remember: gold’s truly big行情 has never been because everyone starts believing it will rise; it’s when everyone starts doubting whether a rise from the high level can continue, yet the funds still choose to buy.