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Changxin Memory goes public— the bull market may be over.
Judging by my experience as a seasoned stock-market veteran, this round of the tech bull market is very likely to end abruptly when Changxin Memory or Yangtze Memory lists.
The 2007 bull market ended after PetroChina went public. In 2015, it ended with China’s “magic cars” listed. In 2020, it ended with CITIC International’s listing. In 2021, it ended with China Mobile’s listing. No matter what, it’s always state-owned “Zhong-” companies—how coincidentally convenient?
They are undoubtedly all “giant behemoths.” They list at the peak of the bull market, sell the company for a great price, and the moment they list is the peak.
These giant behemoth IPOs temporarily freeze up to one trillion yuan of new-issue subscription funds. Liquidity dries up. Within a few days, the massive profit-taking lots cash out heavily at high levels, directly breaking the market—leaving the bull market with no way to recover.
Now is the time of semiconductors, and it’s exactly when it’s best to sell a company. On top of that, Changxin Memory’s half-year earnings preview shows profit growth accelerating at a staggering 2,200%. If they don’t take the opportunity to push a big frenzy right now, otherwise, only retail investors would think they picked up a treasure—until they hold it in their arms and realize it’s a bomb. ⚠️ Financial management involves risks; invest with caution.