7.22 early-morning thoughts

In the early hours, bipartisan consensus was reached in the US via the White House ethics clause under the “CLARITY Crypto Bill,” which proved bullish and provided a quick stimulus. BTC surged strongly in the short term; after probing the 66,600 US dollar stage top point, headroom momentum quickly weakened. A large number of short-term profits piled up and were realized and closed, followed by a slight pullback. In the early morning, it consolidated in a narrow range around $65,900.

The key driver of this upswing is a policy-bullish sentiment premium, not an influx of incremental off-market capital entering in bulk. Although spot BTC has ended eight consecutive weeks of net outflows and has seen a small return for two straight weeks, the fund size remains relatively small, making it unable to support sustained one-way breakout volume. After the breakout, funds cashing out and exiting is a normal market reaction. Combined with Bollinger Bands continuing to tighten and compress volatility, after the narrow early-morning consolidation, markets in Europe and the US are likely to enter a volatility expansion window.

BTC: focus on the 67,200-67,700 area for resistance/pressure, with targets looking at $65,800- $65,300.
ETH: focus on the 1,960-2,000 area for resistance/pressure, with targets looking at 1,900-1,860.

$BTC $ETH #GUSD年化升至3.8%