#CLARITY法案 : The overlooked structural bearish factor $BTC

The market broadly prices the progress of the CLARITY Act as “regulatory clarity → long-term bullish,” but this narrative ignores a key counterintuitive fact: the provisions most likely to actually be implemented in the bill are precisely what the crypto industry least wants.

The core “bearish” factor is not regulation itself, but the ban on earning interest with idle stablecoins. The draft would prohibit paying rewards to “holders of idle stablecoins.” That is essentially turning off directly the largest “lifeblood machine” in DeFi and CeFi. Today, interest-bearing USDC/USDT products are a major source of underlying protocol revenue. Once the ban takes effect, business models that depend on “holding stablecoins to earn yield” will face a structural collapse in earnings. Even industry lobbying groups in banking believe this is still not enough—their goal is to completely prevent deposits from leaving the banking system.

Another underestimated variable is a probability-driven selloff. On Polymarket, the probability that the bill passes in 2026 has fallen from 74% in May to around 32%-36%. On July 13, Trump used the name of a recently deceased senator to apply pressure—yet it ended up amplifying ethical controversy (a conflict of interest between the Trump family’s crypto holdings and the bill’s interests). Uncertainty about expectations itself suppresses the market more than the bill does: Bitcoin is currently $65,867, down more than half from the 52-week high of $126,198, and it has continued to be pressured by the 200-day moving average ($73,045). ETF flows are also wildly swinging between net outflows and inflows. Wall Street, in fact, has already been “front-running” even before the bill—Morgan Stanley E*Trade opened spot trading for BTC/ETH/SOL to retail customers in May at a 0.5% fee. But the story of “institutional participation” cannot offset the short-term siphoning effect that the stablecoin interest-earning ban will have on the crypto-native ecosystem. The day the bill passes may not be the day of celebration.