Mars Finance news: On July 21, independent semiconductor and AI research firm SemiAnalysis said in a post that as AI compute demand is growing rapidly, data center power supply models are changing. Reciprocating engines, which were previously mainly used as backup power during grid outages, are being increasingly reclassified as base power that can run around the clock. This year, reciprocating engine manufacturers have signed contracts to supply about 1GW of behind-the-meter power projects, with planned annual incremental supply volumes expected to exceed 4GW in 2027 and 2028. After modeling the capacity of the U.S. power grid, SemiAnalysis pointed out that available power reserves are expected to be fully consumed between 2027 and 2028, while planned additions of utility-scale generation capacity through 2030 are still insufficient to cover the increased load demand brought by data centers. Combined with its data center model, SemiAnalysis estimated that about 140GW of potential data center projects already have not yet completed signing electricity supply contracts, and these projects may in the future adopt behind-the-meter power generation extensively to bypass grid expansion bottlenecks. Among various behind-the-meter power technologies, including reciprocating engines, aeroderivative gas turbines, and fuel cells, SemiAnalysis expects reciprocating engines to take the largest share. The reason is that they offer advantages such as lower cost, rapid deployment, modular expansion, and stronger financing capacity, while equipment manufacturers such as Caterpillar, INNIO, and Cummins are expanding production capacity to support large-scale deployments in the coming years. As AI data centers continue to expand, onsite self-supplied power is shifting from traditional backup facilities to become a critical energy infrastructure, and reciprocating engines are expected to be an important solution to fill the power gap in the compute era.

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SemiAnalysis: The power deficit for AI data centers is widening, and reciprocating engines could become the main power source for post-switch (behind-the-switch) supply

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