‍#夏日创作营

Bitcoin Market Analysis Today

## I. Today’s Market Recap

On July 21, Bitcoin continued the recovery move that started in mid-July. In the morning, it was quoted at $65,172. The intraday gain was 0.89%. During the day, the price hit a high of $65,400, rebounding more than 3% from that day’s low. This was the third time this month it challenged the $65,000 level. Afterwards, the market kept pushing higher. By 21:30 in the evening, the price broke above $66,000 and ultimately held steadily above $66,800. The total cumulative intraday gain exceeded 2%.

Funding support is clear: US Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows of approximately $1.2 billion over nearly 7 trading days, and BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for nearly half of those inflows. Over the past 60 days, whale addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC cumulatively increased their holdings by 66,700 BTC. The pace of accumulation reached the highest level since February, and the signal of institutional capital returning is unmistakable.

## II. Technical Indicator Analysis

**Short-term indicators:** The $65,000–$65,100 range is exactly where the 50-day moving average sits. Today’s price broke above this key moving average on increased volume. The earlier signs of overheating in short-term buying have been digested. Trend-following capital has started to move in, and bullish momentum has been further confirmed.

**On-chain indicators:** The Puell multiple is currently staying around 0.84, far above the historical lows seen in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. Miner economic pressure is extremely low, and the network fundamentals remain solid, providing underlying support for the price.

**Market structure:** On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin shows a broad-range, upward-oscillating pattern. The price has already returned above the 200-week moving average (about $63,300). This level is the key dividing line for distinguishing long-term bull and bear markets. The long-term trend has shifted from the weak pullback in the early stage to a recovery higher.

## III. Key Support Levels and Resistance Levels

**Core support levels:** The first short-term support is $65,000, which is the 50-day moving average position that has just been broken through and also an important psychological level. The second strong support is $60,000, which is the key bottom support for this round of rebound. If it is effectively broken, the rebound trend will be damaged.

**Core resistance levels:** The first short-term resistance is in the $68,000–$70,000 range, which is the key resistance zone in the short term. The second medium-term resistance is $80,000. If it can break through the prior resistance level, there is a possibility for a subsequent attempt to push toward this level.

## IV. Outlook for the Next Phase

Bitcoin is currently in a critical window where bulls and bears are in a tug-of-war. With ETF capital continuing to flow in, whales continuing to add to their positions, and crypto concept stocks surging collectively—these form a triple positive-catalyst resonance. In addition, historical data shows that July is Bitcoin’s strongest summer month of the year, and over the past 13 years the average gain has been 7.6%. The bulls have strong upside momentum.

That said, potential risks still need to be watched: $63,000–$65,000 is a historically dense trading zone where a large amount of potential sell pressure has accumulated. At the same time, some stablecoin liquidity has flowed out from top exchanges, loosening the market’s “ammunition” supply. If upside momentum stalls, there is a possibility of a short-term pullback. Going forward, the focus should be on ETF fund flows, the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, and the legislative progress of the US《CLARITY Act》. These variables will directly determine the height of this round of rebound.