Wu learned that, according to CryptoRank data, among 113 projects that completed their TGE between 2024 and 2026 and whose current market cap exceeds $100 million, only 8 tokens are still above their TGE price, accounting for about 7.1%. In addition, 105 have fallen below their TGE price, with an overall median return of -95.7%. The better-performing projects include HYPE, ONDO, EVA, and NIGHT, which are up about 1,519%, 101.4%, 20.3%, and 16.5%, respectively, from their TGE prices.

HYPE-3.20%
ONDO11.68%
NIGHT25.94%
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S2FDisciple
· 9h ago
HYPE is up 15x, but who can place the bet early? This probability is even lower than winning the lottery.
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PerpNightshift
· 9h ago
Worth noting is that most of the projects performing well either have real utility or are backed by strong market makers; ordinary meme coins simply can’t hold up.
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ETHGuardian
· 9h ago
A 7.1% survival rate, with the median down more than 95%, indicates that the vast majority of new projects are just grass-cutting machines, and only a tiny number can make it.
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BearHibernator
· 9h ago
This data is too real—playing new coins is like bleeding on the edge of a blade.
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EternalHoarder
· 10h ago
Seeing these numbers, I don’t even dare look at the altcoins in my hand anymore—I’m trembling with fear.
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TAProphet
· 10h ago
Buying new coins is not as good as just buying Bitcoin; at least you don’t have to worry about going to zero every day.
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