#星舰本周四重新挑战发射 Starship’s (Starship) relaunch scheduled for this Thursday (July 20) is set to have a significant impact on SPCX’s stock price, mainly reflected in two dimensions: short-term sentiment shocks and long-term value reappraisal. Based on recent market performance, the specific impact is as follows:

1、 Short-term impact: event-driven stock price swings
If the launch succeeds: a successful Starship test flight will validate the technological maturity of the V3 version and drive the deployment of Starlink V3 satellites. This could help repair the pessimistic sentiment in the market caused by the earlier aborted test flight, and may trigger a “short squeeze” rebound in the stock price (some institutions predict the rebound could be in the range of about 10%-15%).
If the launch fails again or is aborted: it will deal another blow to market confidence in the company’s technology commercialization progress. Coupled with the fact that SPCX’s stock price has already fallen significantly due to the earlier aborted test flight and expectations for the release of restricted shares (and it has already fallen below the IPO issue price), another failure may create further selling pressure, causing the stock price to continue to hit new lows.
2、 Long-term impact: valuation reappraisal and sentiment repair
Technology validation and valuation anchoring: Starship is the core engine for SpaceX to reduce launch costs, expand the Starlink scale, and unlock commercial scenarios on the Moon and Mars. The launch outcome will directly affect how the market prices the company’s long-term growth narrative, determining whether SPCX’s valuation continues to pull back or stabilizes and rebounds.
Stacking multiple market factors: SPCX’s stock price is influenced not only by the launch outcome, but also by the combined impact of the recent “restricted-share release” (selling pressure brought by a large number of shares being released in early August), “short-selling sentiment,” and expectations for performance delivery. A successful launch may partially offset the negative impact from the restricted-share release, while a failed launch would amplify the market’s pessimism.

The above analysis is based on publicly available market information and institutional views. Short-term fluctuations in the stock market are affected by multiple factors, and nothing in this article constitutes any investment advice. #夏日创作营