【July 21 Gold Brief Comment】Asia-Europe session spikes then falls back; bulls are pinned down by “two big mountains”

Today, during the Asia-Europe session, gold prices rebounded on news of a US-Iran ceasefire proposal, briefly touching 4050, but soon slipped back into consolidation—plainly put, “risk-off wants to rise, but rates won’t allow it.”

Why did it spike then fall back?

The Federal Reserve poured cold water: the odds of a rate hike in September still exceed 50%; the 10-year US Treasury yield is stuck at a high 4.6%, making holding gold too costly—so on any rebound, profit-taking gets hit.

The US dollar is too strong: the DXY is hovering around 101; non-US buyers think gold is expensive, and physical buying can’t keep up.

A geopolitical “anti-logic”: things are still turbulent in the Middle East, but when oil prices rise, the market instead fears an inflation rebound and a more hawkish Fed—risk-off benefits are offset by interest-rate headwinds.

Today’s Asia-Europe session spike then fall back is, at root, technical resistance from moving averages + fundamental rate pressure from high interest rates + lack of volume to cooperate. For now, it’s more like short-term repair within a downtrend, not yet meeting the real “firm stabilization” conditions of “not breaking the previous low + holding above the 20-day moving average + expectations of rate cuts turning around.” Focus on whether the 4000 level can hold without breaking for 3 consecutive days, and whether subsequent US data such as core PCE will cause US Treasury yields to turn directionally higher.

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