7.21 Chen Jie evening analysis

Ahead of the night session, geopolitical safe-haven sentiment cooled, while U.S. Treasury yields and expectations that the Fed will keep rates high remained elevated, continuing to support the U.S. dollar index. After an intraday violent rally pushed to a peak of 4084, follow-through from buyers was severely lacking, quickly triggering a concentrated retreat of long positions taking profits. Spot gold then rapidly fell back to around 4068, highlighting the heavy burden of sell pressure at high levels. With insufficient sustained fundamental buying support, the overall tone for the night session is likely to be bearish, with upside momentum exhausting and a technical pullback from the high.

The daily K-line chart shows that although price probed upward, it encountered crushing suppression in the trapped-position area extending to 4085 above the daily MA20 (4062), and failed to break through the medium-term downward channel.

On the 4-hour chart, a K-line with a long upper wick formed; price has severely deviated from the moving average system (MA5 at 4045, MA10 at 4027). The overbought indicators urgently need to correct downward to return to the moving averages. The 4070-4090 range has become the core bearish defense zone for the night session.

Trading strategy
Sell around 4070-4090, aim for 4040-4010-3980, buy at 4098#XAU $BTC