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Today’s market snapshot
Before you head out, take a look at today’s market..
1 The funding side is currently very biased to the long side; before 68K, shorts should be cautious...
1) The ETF has been seeing continuous inflows for a week. Figure 1 is a metric I built based on the Coinbase premium.. Take the real-time Coinbase premium and subtract the USDC/USDT exchange rate difference.. Get the real Coinbase premium (the “real venue” in the chart)
Then compute a z-score based on this real premium..
The pre-market and intraday premium z-score have an extremely strong correlation with whether ETF flows are net inflows or net outflows (see the bottom half of Figure 1)
For today, the pre-market premium still points to a state where the ETF is expected to have net inflows today
2） Spot and futures CVD (Figure 2) are also in a “buy, buy, buy” state...
3） Not only is the ETF buying, on-chain funds are also buying.. Yesterday, the exchange net outflow was nearly 10k BTC in a single day...
In the Asian afternoon, there was a breakout-volume entry model that already failed.. Not exhausted yet...
So for shorts today, I’m being more cautious..
At least below 68K, around the on-chain short-term holder cost is where I’d consider it (Figure 3)
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2 From the order book and color-band model.. Right now there are no color bands above 66K... (Figure 4)
At this level, it’s not something to short yet... Look a bit higher toward the 67K area to see if there’s a color band..
Around 67K, there’s a wave of medium-sized limit orders on both derivatives and spot....
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(To be continued in the next post)