The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes and cuts drive the global tide of USD liquidity, affecting U.S. stocks, crypto assets, and gold in markedly different ways.

When entering a rate-hike cycle, capital flows back to the United States and U.S. Treasury yields move higher. U.S. stock valuations are generally under pressure, and high-valuation tech and growth stocks see larger pullbacks. As crypto is a high-risk asset, it often experiences drawdowns first. Gold, a non-yielding asset, usually faces pressure as well, and typically only breaks out into an independent move when geopolitical turmoil provides a safe-haven bid.



When switching to a rate-cut cycle, market conditions reverse. Falling financing costs lift risk appetite, and U.S. growth sectors show standout upside resilience. Crypto assets are extremely sensitive to liquidity and often rise in advance as markets bet on easing expectations. With real interest rates falling and the U.S. dollar weakening, gold is broadly favorable in the medium to long term.



But it’s crucial to be clear: capital markets trade expectations, not the moment when policy is actually implemented. At the same time, there is no fully certain rule—variables such as an economic downturn and geopolitical risks can turn the market at any time. Interest rates are only one of many influencing factors, and you cannot simply make a one-way bet on asset price movements based on rate hikes or cuts. #夏日创作营