Bounce fails under 78.2–78.5, short there; stop-loss above 79.5; cut the position by half at 76.2; the rest depends on 73.5–74.

SOL spot price is 78.43. During the day, it follows BTC in repairing the rebound, but the long-term daily chart major short structure has not been reversed. This rebound is defined as a downtrend continuation repair. The 50-day moving average is precisely capping at 78.2; after three attempts, it was smashed back every time—above 78 is the short-squeeze harvesting zone.

Upward resistance: 78.2–78.5; daily MA50 + convergence with the wedge upper rail; the strongest intraday watershed.

Downside targets: 76.2 first stop; if it breaks down, look for 73.5–74.

① On the 1-hour chart, price has repeatedly tested the 78 level and stalled, with a preliminary bearish divergence pattern forming locally. The 4-hour chart converges to the end of the wedge; the Bollinger Bands are extremely tight—after volatility compression, a one-way surge with expansion in volume is inevitable. The SOL futures long/short ratio remains high. Retail long positioning is crowded; once BTC turns, SOL will fall at about 1.8 times the pace of the big-cap BTC paper.

② The SOL spot ETF saw a net inflow of $2.6396 million yesterday, but over the past week it has only brought in about $950k—completely a different order of magnitude compared with the BTC ETF’s weekly $75.67 million and the ETH ETF’s weekly $105 million. Funds are clearly concentrated in BTC and ETH for risk-off; rotation into the altcoin sector has not yet come in.

③ The Iran-Iraq conflict continues to escalate. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushes Brent crude toward $90. Energy prices reignite inflation worries, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rises to 4.60%. The Fed in July will most likely hold steady (probability about 93%), but the market has not fully ruled out further rate hikes—holding-cost for high-beta assets is getting higher.

If 78 can’t break, then it can’t—don’t mistake BTC’s rebound for a SOL trend reversal $SOL