#夏日创作营 Institutions keep scooping the dips—will there be a breakout?

Recently, the signals released by on-chain data have been getting increasingly positive, and the overall environment is continuing to improve.
From the perspective of fund flows, institutions have already started returning to the market. Bitcoin spot ETFs have maintained net inflows for three consecutive days, accumulating roughly $368 million in inflows. BlackRock and Fidelity remain the main sources of buying, while the redemption pressure on GBTC has clearly eased, indicating that the capital that previously flowed out is gradually being replenished.

Not only the short-term data looks favorable—whether over the past week or the past month, ETF funds have already turned back to net inflows. Institutional allocation appetite has become noticeably stronger compared with the earlier period, and market sentiment has also begun to recover gradually.

The derivatives market has also shown positive changes. Futures and options open interest continues to increase, and market risk-averse sentiment has cooled. As a result, demand for bearish hedging has declined, and overall sentiment has shifted from the earlier cautious-to-bearish stance toward neutral to mildly bullish. As for the sell pressure many people worry about, it is actually not obvious right now. Exchange BTC inflow remains at low levels, and there are no signs of large amounts of coins transferring to exchanges in preparation for selling. This suggests that holders’ overall “holding tight” sentiment remains strong, and the coin supply structure stays stable.

Overall, at present—whether it’s liquidity, on-chain data, or market sentiment—everything leans more toward the long side. All that’s left is for trading volume to further expand to complete the final confirmation. If afterward the price can effectively hold above $65,700, there is still room for upside to continue opening.
At this stage, the logic for shorting is not strong. Going short against the trend needs extra caution. Also, looking at short positioning, although there are still plenty of shorts, they have not formed concentrated dump power. Recently, the amount of short liquidations has been clearly higher than that of longs: a large number of short positions near $65,000 were forced to stop-loss and exit. The four-hour timeframe still maintains an upward structure, and for now there are no clear weakening signals such as top divergence.
Worth watching is that the perpetual swap contract funding rate is still staying around negative values, meaning the cost for shorts is continually rising. If the price continues to climb slowly, there is still a chance to trigger a new round of short squeezes. Every rise may force more shorts to stop out, and these buy-back orders, in turn, push the price higher again. Next, the focus remains on trading volume. If it breaks out with expanded volume and holds firmly above $66,000, this uptrend would basically be confirmed. In the short term, there may be a chance to first test the $67,000–$67,500 area, and then later make an attempt toward around $68,000.

Right now, it seems the bears temporarily lack a clear advantage, and the risk of shorting against the trend is increasing. In the short term, focus on potential low-buy opportunities after pullbacks—don’t chase after highs, don’t blindly increase leverage, and wait to expand positions only after the trend is truly confirmed. The market has never been about who predicts best—it’s about who can maintain enough patience through volatility.