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UBS: Semiconductors are entering a differentiated phase, and the AI grouping rally is still ongoing
Deep Tide TechFlow news: according to Chaoxiang Research, UBS released the SemiBytes Brief on July 20, 2026, concluding that the semiconductor sector is transitioning from a broad-based rally into a period of intense differentiation, while the AI mainline “basket” trade trend is still continuing.
The report covers five key topics. Kimi K3’s release has driven another upgrade in the scale of open-source models, with longer context windows boosting HBM and storage demand; NVIDIA is the biggest beneficiary. Over the next several years, Micron’s cumulative free cash flow is expected to exceed $400 billion. After the buyback ban is lifted, the theoretical buyback ratio could top 40%, and this has not yet been fully priced by the market.
Within the simulated chip sector, internal differentiation is intensifying. In targets with higher AI exposure, a 42x earnings-per-share price-to-earnings premium has been achieved. The valuations of auto and industrial-exposure names are still close to historical average levels. Position crowding indicators show that Lam Research, Broadcom, Seagate, Micron, and AMD remain in extremely crowded long positions.