Crypto market’s “two extremes”: regulatory dawn and looming macro clouds coexist

Trading is hard right now because the market is repricing two main narratives that are moving in completely opposite directions:

“Fire” on the policy front: The “Clarity Act” is seen as a milestone for the crypto industry. Even though it’s currently stuck on the final ethics-clause negotiations ahead of a Senate vote (with the Trump camp still having reservations), once it passes, regulated platforms like Coinbase and the institutionalization of BTC/ETH will see a real spring. This is a long-term super positive.

“Ice” on the macro front: The Trump administration is once again swinging the tariff sword. It has imposed a 50% tariff on Canadian goods under the 1930 Tariff Act. On top of that, an escalation in the Middle East situation has caused a sharp surge in risk through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices back up. This means inflation expectations are rising, and the Fed may keep high interest rates for longer than everyone expects.

Conclusion: The coming days are a turning-point window. Watch whether the “Clarity Act” can push through before the August recess, and whether the geopolitical conflict spirals out of control.