📊 【Ethereum #ETH · Intraday Deep Dive (July 21)】

🔴 1. Latest market snapshot $ETH
ETH is currently around 1,931, up +1.5% today, with a second push toward 1,950 key resistance (the July 15 rebound high). Since the June low of 1,520, it has rebounded by 28% in total. Last week, it precisely held the 23.6% Fibonacci golden ratio level when pulling back to 1,840, then stabilized. The daily chart shows a bullish structure of “building energy at the highs, pullbacks that don’t break.” The rebound strength in this leg has significantly outperformed the “big coin” (BTC was +13.5% over the same period), with funds rotating into higher-volatility assets.
📰 2. News flow (mixed for both bulls and bears)
Bullish:
① The US CPI data came in below expectations, cooling tightening expectations for the Fed; risk appetite rebounded, and ETH surged 6.5% in a single day last week to lead among major tokens;
② ETH spot ETF flows returned to net inflows: net inflow of $68.90 million over the past 7 days, with the largest single-day inflow of $70.50 million (7/8);
③ Derivatives open interest jumped 15.3% in 7 days to $27.27 billion; incremental capital actively went long, with both volume and price rising;
④ The “Ethereum Institutional” institutional alliance was officially established; Lubin endorsed it, connecting an institutional-asset channel of about $2.5 trillion;
⑤ Fed Chair Waller took a relatively dovish stance, opening market imagination for a shift toward liquidity.
Bearish:
① The June ETF recorded a record net outflow of $4.51 billion; institutional confidence repair still takes time;
② The CLARITY bill was not signed as scheduled; the probability of passage after the Senate reconvenes fell to 42%—48%, leaving regulatory uncertainty;
③ Citi cut its BTC target price to $82,000 and expects that over the next year there will be zero net inflows for ETFs; big institutions’ stance remains cautious;
④ With the Fed’s rate decision looming on July 28—29, under high-leverage derivatives positioning, any back-and-forth in the news will be amplified;
⑤ The Fear & Greed Index has just repaired from the extreme fear zone, and market sentiment is still fragile.
📉 3. Technical analysis
Daily: The uptrend channel since 1,520 remains intact. After a pullback to the 23.6% retracement level (1,846), it stabilized—this is a strong corrective characteristic. If it can hold 1,950 on increased volume, it will open room to challenge 1,990—2,050. 4-hour: After a second bottom test at 1,840, it formed a small double bottom; the neckline at 1,900 has been reclaimed, and the short-term setup turns into an attacking structure. 15-minute: along the rising staircase, it has been climbing steadily; the bulls’ rhythm is good.
Key Fibonacci anchor: For the large swing (2,450 → 1,520), the 50% retracement ≈ 1,985 (precisely overlaps with the 1,974—1,990 resistance zone)—this is the true watershed between bulls and bears!
Volatility reminder: ETH’s elasticity is greater than BTC’s. A daily 3%—5% volatility is the norm; before the Fed meeting, volatility will further expand—priority should be given to position risk management!
🧭 4. Core support and resistance
Short-term support (intraday—next few days):
① 1,900 (round-number level + today’s breakout pullback; the bulls’ first line of defense)
② 1,860 (23.6% retracement above 1,846 + weekend consolidation platform)
③ 1,820 (July 18 needle-tip low; the structural bottom for the short term)
Medium-term support (weeks time frame):
① 1,750 (38.2% retracement zone + prior platform; the medium-term strength/weakness boundary)
② 1,680 (61.8% golden ratio retracement; precise confluence support)
③ 1,600 (late-June consolidation platform + psychological level)
Short-term resistance:
① 1,950 (July rebound high; breakout opens new upside room)
② 1,990 (large swing 50% retracement overlap zone; most important)
③ 2,050 (the broken platform in June; the last short-term line of defense for bears)
Medium-term resistance:
① 2,150 (above the 61.8% large retracement + the dense May trapped-liquidity zone)
② 2,300 (the major platform repeatedly validated in April—May)
③ 2,500 (psychological level + the March high area; trend reversal confirmation point)
⚠ ️ 4. Risk warning
Next week’s Fed rate decision is the biggest variable for this month. With high leverage in derivatives, volatility will be significantly amplified; progress on the CLARITY bill and ETF fund flow direction must be tracked daily. It is recommended that total position size not exceed 30%, risk per trade not exceed 2% of principal, contract leverage be strictly controlled, and you should not chase trades or “hold and carry” positions. The above is only personal research viewpoints and does not constitute any investment advice. Any actions taken based on this are at your own risk.