July 21 Morning Brief: Total Inflows—Lady Yellow Fish

When price spikes into resistance, a pullback risk lurks—be wary of overextended “dǒu tóu” getting topped out and giving back gains.
1. From a view of the order book, gold has been rising continuously and surged to 4067, with the current price at 4064. The hourly chart is significantly deviating from the Bollinger Bands; compared with the Bollinger upper band at 4054, it has formed an overbought deviation. The “miraculous nine-turn” bullish sequence has entered its latter half, and there is an urgent need for a possible reversal and pullback at any time. The ultimate resistance above is 4074, and the first support below is 4020. Once “dǒu tóu” sell pressure concentrates and releases, the room for a retracement will open quickly.
2. From the news side, this round of gains stems from betting ahead of data for a “clear sailing” outlook. This week, the U.S. core inflation data will be released soon. If the data is again stronger than expected, the U.S. dollar will rebound quickly, and at high levels, “dǒu tóu” positioning is very likely to consolidate and close positions. There is a lack of substantive upside catalysts for the current rise, making it a form of overextended rally.

Strategy:
Build staggered positions on the 4070-4085 rebound zone for a pullback play. Targets: 4020, 4000.
Note: The above is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. $XAUT