#夏日创作营 #美军对伊朗连续第10天发动打击#It has been reported today that Trump will decide within the next few days whether to expand military action against Iran.

That’s why many funds are now choosing to wait rather than go heavily into positions. Because what truly moves the market is not what has already happened, but the uncertainty over the next few days. If the conflict escalates, safe-haven assets such as gold and crude oil may come back into focus, while risk assets could face pressure. If, in the end, no expansion occurs, the market may instead see a “shoelace drops”—an adjustment once the uncertainty is resolved.

The biggest enemy in the market right now isn’t bad news, but uncertainty. So over these few days, more than trying to predict up or down, what’s worth watching is the change in developments, and whether capital will make a choice in advance.

This also explains why Bitcoin and US stocks have both been trading sideways recently.
It’s not that there are no positives—it's that the geopolitical “mine” hasn’t been defused yet. The market will keep discounting this risk until the direction becomes clear.