In recent days, the market has been rising, and today the fundamentals also brought some positive signals:

1、ETF funds reflow, providing support on the spot side
On July 20, US spot BTC ETFs recorded total net inflows of about $226.8 million, while ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $38 million.
This means this leg of the rally isn’t entirely just short-covering in the futures market—there is indeed incremental spot buying pressure, which is especially favorable for BTC.
However, it’s important to note that inflows in a single day only offer short-term support. Only if net inflows persist for consecutive days can the current weaker mid-term capital positioning be truly changed.

2. The macro environment is not purely Risk-on
There is a clear contradiction in the market right now:
Softer inflation data earlier helped risk assets recover, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reignited. Brent crude briefly rose above $90, long-end US Treasury yields moved higher, and the market started pricing again in energy-inflation risk. US stocks fell overall on Monday, indicating traditional risk assets have not fully confirmed an expansion of the latest risk-on appetite.
This explains the current coin price characteristics:
Prices are strong, but the macro environment hasn’t fully aligned.
Therefore, once oil, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields continue to rise, after BTC and ETH sweep the liquidity above, they are prone to a fast pullback.

3. Ahead of the FOMC, the market enters a pre-game phase
The Federal Reserve will hold an FOMC meeting on July 28–29, followed by the release of the initial estimate of Q2 GDP and June PCE on July 30.
This week lacks US economic data at the same level, so in the short term, the market is mainly driven by:
Middle East developments and oil prices;
US Treasury yields;
earnings reports from large US tech companies;
BTC and ETH ETF fund flows;
These factors drive the move.
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{spot}(BTCUSDT)