Taiwan Institute of Economic Research calls for this year’s GDP growth to exceed 10%: the AI opportunity boom could last until 2028

The president of the TAIWAN Institute of Economic Research (TIARE), Chang Chien-yi, disclosed today that the latest economic growth forecast will be raised to above 10%. It aligns with the Academia Sinica's 10.16% and the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS)'s 9.64%, making it rare for all three institutions this year to fully share the view that Taiwan’s economy will surge to double-digit growth. The key all points to the same thing: AI-related exports and capital expenditures far exceed the original estimates.
(Background: Taiwan’s GDP beat expectations by nearly 20%—Taiex orders of TSMC, which also “worked during typhoon leave days,” surged, earning a sweet 40% premium.)
(Background addition: Bloomberg’s compilation of Wall Street’s 50 firms’ 2026 forecasts: AI drives global average growth of 3%; high valuation risk still needs to be kept in mind.)

After the Academia Sinica significantly raised its 2026 economic growth rate forecast on July 13 to 10.16%, the president of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIARE), Chang Chien-yi, today (21) previewed in an interview at the TIARE’s 50th anniversary celebration that the latest round of forecasts will also be raised to above 10%, aligning with the same direction as Academia Sinica.

According to a report by the Economic Daily News, Chang Chien-yi said that DGBAS had previously estimated this year’s economic growth rate at 9.64%, which already marked a 16-year high; however, the latest internal calculations by TIARE suggest that the actual numbers may be stronger than the original forecasts by DGBAS, Academia Sinica, and the Central Bank. The reason boils down to just one thing: exports are far too strong, well beyond what the models assumed by each institution.

The July 13 upward revision by Academia Sinica was the earliest and the largest among the three parties. It raised the growth forecast by 6.45 percentage points from the 3.71% predicted in last December, becoming the most optimistic domestic think-tank forecast. DGBAS, after forecasting 7.71% in February, also raised it to 9.64%, an upward revision of 1.93 percentage points. TIARE’s addition completes the third piece of the puzzle. The three sides jointly agree that demand for AI, high-performance computing, and cloud infrastructure is beyond expectations—driving strong growth in semiconductor and information and communications industry exports, as well as robust private investment. This is the true driving force behind the growth rate being steadily lifted.

AI business opportunities can last until 2028, but the baseline is the variable

Chang Chien-yi further previewed that the business opportunities driven by AI will not stop at least through 2028. Taiwan’s economic growth rate this year is set to hit above 10%, and next year should also perform well.

However, he also cautioned about a key baseline issue. This year and last year both have relatively high growth-rate baselines. If Taiwan can still deliver growth of 8% or more next year, that would truly prove that AI demand is strong enough not to be a fleeting boom, but able to maintain high-speed growth on an elevated baseline.

Besides AI export momentum, Chang Chien-yi also discussed Taiwan’s position in the global realignment. He believes globalization is still happening, but its pace has clearly slowed. The U.S.-China rivalry is effectively set in stone. In the future, the world may split into three circles: one led by the United States, one led by China, and one neither U.S.-nor-China (with the EU as the main force). But Taiwan does not necessarily have to rely solely on close business with the two major camps of the U.S. and China. The key is to grasp the security floor that each country can accept.

He particularly pointed out that, in response to tariff-equivalent arrangements and the ART agreement Taiwan signed with the United States, the content is nearly like a free trade agreement (FTA), and some conditions are even negotiated better than in typical FTAs. This has also encouraged economic blocs such as the EU and Japan to follow up with talks on similar agreements. For traditional industries that have long been disadvantaged on tariffs due to not signing FTAs, this represents a rare opportunity to break free from constraints.