I’m not very good at forcing a causal link between macro data and NFT floor prices, but after seeing discussions lately about stablecoin supply and ETF inflows, it feels like a lot of people are drawing arrows again. When stablecoin supply increases and ETFs are seeing net inflows every day, then people start shouting, “Capital is flowing back to NFTs.” Honestly, there are several layers of transmission between the two. OTC capital is entering BTC/ETH, and between that and the liquidity of blue-chip NFTs there’s still a “sentiment switch”—and right now that switch is tightly wound shut by royalty squabbles and back-and-forth online arguing.

Speaking of royalties, I pretty much agree with the data camp’s take: creator earnings and secondary-market liquidity were never a linear relationship. Some projects have high royalties but low turnover, and the floor price stays steady instead. Some have zero royalties: liquidity goes up, but there’s a huge amount of wash trading, and there aren’t many players who genuinely make profit. Anyway, when I sweep the floor price, I don’t care whether the royalties are high or low—I only look at whether the price gap between rarity and the floor price has been undervalued due to sentiment. For now, that’s it. Data won’t lie, but people will use data to fool themselves.