7.21 WTI crude oil analysis

WTI is $83.23, and Brent is $89.22. The intraday swing exceeds $5, and the technical picture shows a broad-range consolidation pattern. RSI(14) is trading in the neutral zone around 54. MACD remains a buy signal, but the short- and long-term moving averages are intertwined, so a directional breakout still needs a catalyst. The market’s core driving force right now is geopolitical risk—the Strait of Hormuz transit volume has suddenly fallen to below 10% of normal levels. At the same time, Red Sea Houthi militants are also blocking Saudi exports, causing real damage to the supply side. This is compounded by U.S. strategic petroleum reserves dropping to the lowest level since 1983, leaving the buffering mechanism extremely thin. On the macro front, June CPI cooled more than expected, easing the urgency of further rate hikes, but if oil prices continue rising, they may again lift inflation expectations, and the probability of the Fed hiking rates in September remains. In the short term, oil prices are expected to stay highly volatile under geopolitical sentiment. Focus on the effectiveness of the 84.60 resistance and the 81.25 support. The analysis above does not constitute investment advice.

Trading suggestion: go long at 78–80, target 82–85.