$IREN Jumped 19.87% overnight to $41. Trading volume hit 17.6M, doubling versus yesterday. But the Fed meeting minutes have just hinted that no rate cuts are likely this year—meanwhile BTC is barely moving. Is this breakout-and-rally being driven by someone betting on a miner “comeback”?

Last night’s US non-farm payrolls came in above expectations, manufacturing CPI surged 0.4% month over month, and the Fed minutes are basically spelled out: sticky inflation + tight labor = keep rates unchanged at 5.25%. The S&P 500 fell directly by 1.2%, BTC followed down 3.5% to 68k. But $IREN managed to carve out an independent move. Quantified correlation shows that over the past 30 days, the correlation coefficient between $IREN and BTC is only 0.17, and it’s negatively correlated with the S&P 500 at -0.09—this thing is completely a self-willed oddball. On the commodities side, copper and aluminum dropped 2%, pointing to weak industrial demand; while mining-rig costs are easing, this $IREN move looks less like fundamentals and more like capital betting on expectations that after Bitcoin’s halving, hash power will migrate.
Trading advice: don’t chase here. 41 is already a resistance zone from three months ago. If it pulls back to around 38 and BTC holds above 66k, take a small long position; set a stop loss at 35.5. First target 43.5, second target 47. If it breaks below 36 tomorrow and volume shrinks to below 10M, cut the position immediately. Don’t risk more than 3% of your account—this coin has poor liquidity; one pin can dig out your eyes.
Don’t just watch the chart—BTC liquidity drying up and miner selling pressure are the hidden lines. After the halving, total network hashrate dropped by 15%; smaller mining farms are getting cleared out, and only a top token like $IREN has the capital to bet on a “reverse.” Watch tomorrow at 3:00 a.m. for Fed Governor Williams’ speech. Once a dovish signal comes out, BTC will immediately catch its breath, and $IREN can fly along.