## Gold Morning News 🪨 7/21 Tuesday

**XAU $4,008.60（+0.08%）**｜COMEX settled at $4,010.30（-0.06%）
24h range: $4,008 - $4,040.52 (jumped to $4,040 in the Asian session, then pulled back)
ATH $5,405 (January), current drawdown -25.8%

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**Big news overnight**
- 🔴 **The Iran-Iraq conflict enters its ninth day**: CENTCOM announced the launch of the tenth round of strikes (early morning Beijing time). The targets expanded to Iran’s southern coastal military installations + Isfahan. Iranian President Pezeshkian announced “all-out war,” and the IRGC vowed to ensure the US “remembers the lesson”
- 🔴 **Houthi forces announce a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia**—a potential new front. Red Sea shipping insurance costs have surged; if the Bab el-Mandeb is fully blocked, global oil supply would be reduced by 7%
- 🛢️ WTI $82.05（+0.33%），volatile near highs, energy-inflation worries persist
- 💵 DXY 100.95（+0.19%），US 10Y yields 4.60%（+5bp），a firmer dollar + higher yields both weigh on gold
- The Federal Reserve enters its FOMC blackout period (7/28-29 meeting). Worsh维持 hawkish stance of “zero tolerance for high inflation”

**FedWatch (latest)**
- July kept unchanged: 96% (rate hikes only 4%)
- September: 25bp hike probability 52.6%, unchanged 39.7%, 50bp hike 7.7%
- Probability of at least one rate hike before year-end >70%

**Domestic gold prices**: AU9999 ~876 yuan/gram, branded jewelry gold 1220-1222 yuan/gram, scrap ~860 yuan/gram

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**Qualitative view: geopolitical safe-haven vs Fed rate-hike double squeeze—gold price locked in a tug-of-war at the $4,000 level**

Yesterday’s move was very typical—gold spiked to $4,040 in the Asian session to probe resistance, but the dollar + US Treasury yields rising in tandem pushed gold back down. The core contradiction is escalating:
1. Safe-haven buying is indeed there, but it’s being offset by the chain of oil prices → inflation → rate-hike expectations
2. The Houthi blockade of Saudi Arabia is a new variable. If the Bab el-Mandeb really shuts, oil prices could jump again; at that point, safe-haven demand and inflation expectations would rise in sync, and gold’s path depends on which force is stronger
3. COMEX has fallen on 7 out of the past 10 trading days, so the short-term trend is bearish

**Support**: $3,986 → $3,950 → $3,812 (lower bound of the channel)
**Resistance**: $4,040 → $4,100-4,112

**Strategy**: The $4,000 level is holding for now, but heavy pressure sits overhead. In the short run, expect range-bound trading mainly in $4,000-$4,050. Watch two things this week—① whether the Iran-Iraq situation further escalates into energy infrastructure (power plants/oilfields); ② Thursday’s initial jobless claims + Friday’s PMI data. **The 7/28-29 FOMC is the key catalyst: the market pricing for a September rate hike is 52.6%. If that’s realized, gold could test $3,950 and even $3,812**

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**Other precious metals**: Silver $56.41（-0.71%），Platinum $1,594.70（+1.77%），Palladium $1,258.89（+3.19%）
**BTC** $65,255（+1.26%），**ETH** $1,900.76（+2.06%）