Mr. Bege’s Analysis: The Cycle Bottom-Picking “Magic Tool”—A Historical Review of Cointime Price Triggering 4 Times

Cointime Price is one of the main indicators in Mr. Beig’s “Four Major Deep Bear Bottom-Fishing Models.” In this article, I go back and fully review the complete data from the indicator’s past four times triggering: in 2015 it broke below the level for 257 days, with a maximum drop below of 32%; in 2019 it was 120 days, with 23%; in 2023 it was 63 days, with 8%; and during the 2020 pandemic it was only 7 days, with 10%. Behind the pattern of decreasing duration and decreasing break-below magnitude each time is the volatility convergence brought by BTC maturing. This article is written by Mr. Beig (@market_beggar) for a co-branded column with the 動區動趨 Academy program.
(Background recap: Mr. Beig analysis: How do you really catch a true BTC super-bottom? Two “high-probability” market-cost bottom signals)
(Background supplement: Mr. Beig analysis: The market’s Cambrian stage—when the second periodic bottom signal appears)

Table of Contents

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• Cointime Price calculation logic
• Complete data from the four past signal triggers
• Instead of predicting price moves, plan ahead

Key takeaways

• Cointime Price comes from “Cointime Economics,” a collaboration between Ark and Glassnode, which time-weights valuations of BTC holdings and excludes ancient and lost coins.
• Historical four trigger datasets: 2015 (257 days, max drop-below 32%); 2019 (120 days, 23%); 2023 (63 days, 8%); 2020 pandemic (7 days, 10%).
• With signal duration and break-below magnitude decreasing one after another, Mr. Beig believes the main reason is that BTC market cap has risen and volatility has fallen, making it increasingly difficult to break below.

On-chain data reflects the market’s overall behavioral patterns, but it cannot capture investors’ micro-level thoughts one by one. Therefore, I prepared a “Chinese-language Crypto Investor Intention Survey” and hope that through everyone’s feedback, we can understand market retail strategies, needs, and pain points more completely. This questionnaire is filled out anonymously; it takes about 1 minute in total. Each of your responses can make the follow-up research results more valuable. Survey link: https://forms.gle/CTtNH34CXBbLF4eq7

In late December 2024, I first introduced Cointime Price to everyone, and I have repeatedly mentioned how this indicator can be used in bottom-fishing and top-escaping. As one of the main indicators in the “Four Major Deep Bear Bottom-Fishing Models,” today I’m going to answer a question that is asked very often: what are the historical performance data of this indicator?

Figure: Cointime Price is currently $51,909; the yellow marks indicate each historical level break-below position｜Source: Glassnode, Mr. Beig @market_beggar

Cointime Price calculation logic

The indicator in the attached figure is Cointime Price. The yellow signals represent breaking below Cointime Price. A simple summary of the concept is as follows:

• Produced jointly by Ark and Glassnode under “Cointime Economics”
• Uses a “time-weighted” calculation for BTC holdings, and performs a fair valuation
• Excludes the impact of ancient and lost holdings, and only considers “moving” holdings

Everyone who knows Mr. Beig’s longtime friends knows that, for bottom-fishing at the cycle level, my personal favorite indicator is Cointime Price. The main reasons are “tight logic (low ‘carving-on-a-stone’ component) + excellent historical performance.”

In fact, just from the timing of the signal triggers shown in the attached chart, you can already see how accurately Cointime Price captures BTC cycle bottoms; but today I plan to go a bit deeper and talk with you about some details.

Complete data from the four past signal triggers

The performance data of Cointime Price during the past four times it triggered signals are as follows:

1. 2015 cycle bottom

• Total signal trigger duration: 257 days
• Maximum magnitude of break below Cointime Price: 32%

2. 2019 cycle bottom

• Total signal trigger duration: 120 days
• Maximum magnitude of break below Cointime Price: 23%

3. 2023 cycle bottom

• Total signal trigger duration: 63 days
• Maximum magnitude of break below Cointime Price: 8%

4. 2020 special event (COVID-19 pandemic)

• Total signal trigger duration: 7 days
• Maximum magnitude of break below Cointime Price: 10%

Even though the sample size is small, I wonder whether you’ve noticed a pattern: “the signal trigger duration keeps shortening + the break-below magnitude keeps decreasing.”

This is not a coincidence; the main reason is still BTC maturing. As BTC’s market cap rises, lower volatility is an inevitable trend—so it becomes increasingly difficult to break below the already strict Cointime Price.

Plan ahead instead of predicting the price move

Coming back to the present, I don’t have a crystal ball, so I can’t guarantee that a signal will definitely trigger in the future. But once Cointime Price is broken below, as long as BTC doesn’t experience an essential breakdown, I believe buying when the signal triggers and holding for the long term will be a strategy with very high expected value.

So, can it break below Cointime Price again this time and trigger a signal? Who knows.

Compared with predicting price moves, what we need more is to “plan ahead,” because although we have not yet dropped into our ideal “deep bear bottom-fishing zone,” two periodic bottom signals have indeed already triggered: one is PSIP being below 50% shared with you earlier, and the other is the AVIV Heatmap entering the blue zone.

Therefore, whether to start bottom-fishing, do it in batches, or go all-in has no absolute answer. Because everyone’s risk tolerance and time planning are different, as long as you find a layout method that suits you, that is the most correct and reasonable approach.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please carefully assess risks before investing.

Frequently asked questions

What is Cointime Price?

It comes from the “Cointime Economics” framework developed in collaboration between Ark and Glassnode. It uses time-weighted calculations for BTC holdings and performs a fair valuation, excluding the effects of ancient and lost holdings; it only considers moving holdings. The current value is $51,909.

How has Cointime Price performed historically for bottom-fishing?

In the past four signal triggers, they were in 2015 (257 days, maximum break-below 32%), 2019 (120 days, 23%), 2023 (63 days, 8%), and 2020 pandemic (7 days, 10%). The signal duration and break-below magnitude have shown a decreasing trend each time.