7.21 early morning trading thoughts

Looking back at the overall overnight trend, after the daytime push for a breakout met resistance and pulled back, in the early morning the market entered a narrow-range sideways consolidation and grinding. The short-term market temporarily fell into a standoff. From a technical cycle perspective, the one-hour moving average was kept pressing downward throughout; the short-term structure has not changed. In the early morning there was only a slight rebound with no meaningful follow-through volume. This was merely a technical rebound/repair after the decline, with absolutely no signs of the bulls actively stepping in to drive the price higher. After the rebound, upside momentum is severely lacking, and there is a high likelihood that the market will continue to face resistance and pull back after the breakout attempt.

On the macro front, there is still no positive catalyst. During the Fed’s quiet period ahead of its policy decision, all officials stayed silent, leaving the market only able to rely on the price/market technical structure for self-driven pricing. The rate-cut expectations continue to cool, while the regulatory bill debate remains stalemated. Large funds are strongly in a wait-and-see mood. It’s difficult for the market to break out of a one-direction trend in the early morning; overall, the market is mainly characterized by range-bound consolidation and “washing”/grinding.

For BTC rebound around 66,000–66,500, targets are 64,600–64,100.
For ETH rebound around 1,930–1,970, targets are 1,860–1,820.

$BTC $ETH #美国6月PPI年率5.5%