Cardano price prediction: Can ADA break $0.19 after hard fork?

Cardano price remained under pressure on Monday despite the activation of the network’s van Rossem hard fork, leaving ADA traders focused on whether the token can break through its next major resistance zone.

$ADA was trading near $0.162 at the time of writing, down around 2% over 24 hours. The token has remained broadly flat over the past month after a long decline from levels near $0.90 to $1.00. Its market capitalization stands near $6.06 billion, while daily trading volume is around $240 million.

The latest price action comes just after Cardano moved to Protocol Version 11 through the van Rossem hard fork. The network upgrade improved parts of the Plutus smart contract framework and prepared Cardano for future scaling work, but it has not yet produced a sustained ADA price rally.

Cardano price struggles to hold above $0.16

The ADA/USDT daily chart remains in a broader bearish structure. Cardano has fallen sharply from its 2025 highs and recently settled into a narrow range around $0.16. The latest consolidation has slowed the decline, but buyers have yet to establish a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

ADA is also trading below the middle Bollinger Band near $0.1688. The upper band sits around $0.1887, while the lower band is close to $0.1489. This places the price in the lower half of its current volatility range. A sustained move above $0.17 would improve the short-term setup, while a renewed decline could put the $0.15 area back in focus.

The Relative Strength Index stands at 45.62, slightly below its moving average of 47.10. The reading shows that momentum has recovered from more extreme selling conditions but remains below the neutral 50 mark. Buyers therefore have not yet gained firm control of the daily trend.

This weak structure follows months of pressure on ADA. Cardano fell below $0.20 in June as its broader market decline continued. Earlier technical analysis also identified weak momentum indicators as ADA struggled to establish durable support.

Van Rossem hard fork fails to trigger an immediate ADA rally

Cardano activated the van Rossem hard fork on July 18, taking the mainnet to Protocol Version 11. The upgrade became the network’s first hard fork approved and ratified entirely through its onchain governance system.

The upgrade adds Plutus improvements and changes to the cost model used for smart contract execution. It also prepares the technical foundation for the planned Dijkstra era and Ouroboros Leios, which aims to increase Cardano’s transaction capacity. As reported, the upgrade went live after moving through Cardano’s governance process and earlier testnet stages.

However, ADA has so far shown little sustained response to the network event. The token remains near the same price area it occupied before activation. That price behavior suggests traders are still weighing broader market conditions and technical resistance alongside the protocol upgrade.

The hard fork can improve the network’s underlying technology without automatically driving immediate demand for ADA. For the price setup, traders are now watching whether activity following the upgrade can support stronger buying pressure over a longer period.

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