Here’s What the Inflation Data Shows

Key Takeaways

• Trump said oil, gas, eggs and drug prices are falling, as June CPI fell 0.4%, the most since April 2020.
• Gas averaged $3.86 a gallon, down from a May peak above $4.50, after Trump demanded retailers target $2.50.
• Egg prices rose 4.3% in June even though they sit 27.9% below year-ago levels, complicating the White House narrative.

The Claim

Trump made the pledge in a post on Truth Social, writing:

We will continue to bring Prices DOWN, just like Oil, Gas, Eggs, and Prescription Drugs, all of which are dropping FAST after the disaster we inherited from Sleepy Joe Biden.

Image source: Truth SocialThe message extends a weeks-long pressure campaign because on June 30, the president told U.S. fuel retailers to cut pump prices “immediately,” setting a target of around $2.50 a gallon. Moreover, his administration publicized grocery-chain moves such as Giant Eagle’s decision to cut prices on more than 300 frequently purchased products by an average of 10% through Labor Day.

What the June Numbers Show

The government’s own data gives the claim meaningful, if imperfect, backing. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest one-month decline since April 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, prices rose 3.5%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) was unchanged on the month and up 2.6% on the year.

The energy index plunged 5.7% in June after rising 3.9% in May, as the national average for gasoline slipped to $3.86 a gallon, according to AAA data, down sharply from a May peak above $4.50 (though still higher than the sub-$3 levels seen before the Middle East conflict began).

Eggs told a messier story as prices rose 4.3% in June from May, according to CPI data, even though they remain 27.9% below year-ago levels as supplies normalized following an avian flu outbreak. In other words, the annual comparison flatters the trend the president describes, while the monthly direction has turned against it.

Why Markets Care

Cooling headline inflation shapes expectations for Federal Reserve policy, which in turn feeds risk assets, including crypto. Bitcoin has continued to trade near $64,150, as investors weighed the disinflation trend against lingering geopolitical risk.

The price push also lands amid a broader economic policy shake-up with Bitcoin.com News reporting that the government has processed $81 billion in tariff refunds following a Supreme Court ruling against the administration’s emergency tariff authority. Veteran investor Robert Kiyosaki, meanwhile, spent the spring warning that tariff turbulence could trigger a bitcoin crash he planned to buy.

Whether the White House can claim credit for June’s numbers is a separate question. Economists note the energy decline tracked global oil prices as Middle East tensions eased through early summer, while egg prices were normalizing from avian-flu-driven records long before the latest push.

Looking ahead, it will be interesting to look at July’s CPI print as it stands to show whether June’s drop was the start of a durable disinflation trend or a one-month reprieve.