Signs of a bottom forming are beginning to emerge, but multiple suppressing factors still remain

Since July, Bitcoin has been showing a “V-shaped rebound” pattern. On July 1, BTC briefly dropped to about $57,800, a pullback of roughly 54% from the $126k all-time high in October 2025. After that, prices fluctuated and rebounded; as of July 20, trading has been in the $64,000–$65,000 range.

Positive signals are building up. Bitcoin spot ETFs have ended eight consecutive weeks of cumulative net outflows totaling more than $8 billion, and over the past two weeks they recorded about $273 million in total net inflows. In on-chain data, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC collectively increased their holdings by about 11,000 BTC last week, with whale-class addresses accelerating their accumulation. From a technical standpoint, BTC has regained the 200-week moving average (about $63,300), which is widely viewed as the line separating bull and bear markets.

However, the suppressing factors should not be overlooked either. The escalation of the U.S.-Iran military conflict has pushed oil prices higher, intensifying inflation concerns; the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook remains unclear. The $65,000 level has repeatedly surged and then fallen back, indicating heavy sell pressure overhead. The Fear and Greed Index is only 29, placing it in the fear zone.

Overall, BTC is in a consolidation and bottom-building phase within the $60,000–$65,000 range. The direction in the short term depends on whether ETF inflows can be sustained, whether geopolitical risks ease, and whether the key resistance at $65,500 can be effectively broken through. #夏日创作营