$SPCX Starship keeps getting delayed and delayed—can anyone still dare to take a position at this spot?

First, the conclusion: I’m still on the train, but my position has already been cut in half.

Last night, SpaceX’s official account finally gave a clear statement—Starship’s 13th test flight is set for Thursday, July 23.

The 90-minute window opens at 5:45 PM.

Musk originally said Friday, then corrected himself.

The rigor of this guy’s tweets is on par with the ignition reliability of the rocket engines in his house.

This Monday, at the market open, SPCX topped out around 129. It didn’t even manage to hold 130 before getting smashed back down.

Now the price is ranging between 125 and 127, not far from the 52-week low of 122.12. The bid is ridiculously weak, while the sell orders are packed tightly.

What’s interesting is that on-chain shows an address opened a long position of 57,000 SPCX, worth about $7.14 million—currently in a floating loss of over $1 million.

When funds at this level are still hard-holding, it shows that this spot really is where the bull-bear battle is at its fiercest.

SPCX has dropped from 225 to around 125—down more than 40%. The IPO offering price was 135, and that level was broken long ago.

The panic bids that should have run have run, and the longs that should have blown up have blown up almost as well. The bearish news is basically already priced in.

This time, both the hardware and software have been modified. If it succeeds, it will be the first successful Starship test flight since SpaceX went public.

The risks are also very clear—if it fails, SPCX could head straight to 110.

I don’t have blind worship for Musk, but Starship is the key to all of SpaceX’s commercial stories.

The target price provided by Bank of America is $800—not because the analysts are dumb, but because once Starship becomes a reality, SpaceX’s valuation logic changes completely.

At $125, the market has already fully priced in the expectation of a launch failure.

What if it works on Thursday? Ignition succeeds, hot separation goes smoothly, and the boosters land steadily back onto the chopstick tower?

Then if you chase it, your cost won’t be $125 anymore. So I cut my position by half, set a stop-loss at 120, and a target of 145.

Win, eat the swing trade; lose, admit the loss and exit. In the last 48 hours before the rocket launch, there will definitely still be volatility. But I feel that missing this entry at this spot costs more than getting trapped.

Finally, I’ll leave just one question for everyone—
At the moment of ignition on Thursday, there are only two outcomes:
A. Launch succeeds—longs celebrate wildly
B. Launch fails—shorts make a killing
Which side are you betting on? Tell me in the comments 👇👇👇
$SPCX